The E-Cat has no threshold for irrelevance. In terms of probability, the E-Cat is like a civilization killing asteroid impact on the earth. Even if there is only a 1 in ten million chance that the E-Cat is a viable paradigm changing energy device, its mass adoption will have catastrophic extinction consequence for the status quo.
Sooner or later, if the E-Cat is supported by physical law, it will be built. On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 8:12 PM, John Berry <[email protected]> wrote: > Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked out > that his ramblings about probability have meaning. > > Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts remain > that make it worthless. > > 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they > don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. > There is no such thing as probability in reality. > > 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? > Answer 1: 40% > Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real possibility > of it going either way. > If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real risk > that you must take seriously. > If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary > possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. > > But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! > With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well pan > out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore something > potentially significant good or bad. > > But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot worthy > of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low level > 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. > > John > > > > > > > > > On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price for >> CYPW Cyclone Power. >> >> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >> >> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than the >> OBVIOUS thing it is: >> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >> way Rossi used to post >> >> >> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >> >> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >> he's engaging in a classic >> fallacy of arguing from silence. >> >> >> >> >> >> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker <[email protected] >> > wrote: >> >>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>> >>> Rossi is now at 30% >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is worthwhile. >>>> The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi ain't a fraud, >>>> as the common notion suggests. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the world >>>>> competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which is just >>>>> enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it causes >>>>> the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>> power >>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>> >>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>> going >>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>> >>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new source >>>>>> of >>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the best >>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>> >>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist made >>>>>>> in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It is not >>>>>>> an >>>>>>> easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of Nuclear >>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>> application >>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for the >>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps Magnus >>>>>>> just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be coming >>>>>>> over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% on the >>>>>>> basis of >>>>>>> this report. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which is >>>>>>> competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>> uninteresting >>>>>>> fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of 10% or so) >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in 25%. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of the >>>>>>>> Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say it, but >>>>>>>> It >>>>>>>> almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor but >>>>>>>>> up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina at >>>>>>>>>>> Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather Tom >>>>>>>>>>>> Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn (senior >>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at >>>>>>>>>>>> Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee PR >>>>>>>>>>>>> release. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of the >>>>>>>>>>>>> investing >>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March (increased >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
