Jed Rothwell wrote:

Jones Beene wrote:

"As China's Master Plan to Destroy America manifesto
outlines, the multifaceted battle plan recommended by the
Chinese military has taken shape...Financially: Using
Currency as the Primary Weapon...[snip]


I think that is ridiculous. No one is more conservative than stable communist dictator. The last thing the Chinese leaders want to do is rock the boat or cause instability anywhere in the world. My father, who was posted to the Soviet Union during WWII, said the Stalinists were the most stick-in-the-mud right-wing conservatives he ever met in his life.

As you have probably noticed, policy is based on what a country CAN do not on what we think it WILL do. Not only is it not possible to know how a country will behave, we have found that a country usually does what it CAN do. Consequently, given a clear advantage or an perceived threat, China has the power to destroy our economy. If it WILL do that depends on our behavior and on the rational behavior of China's leaders. Neither restriction gives me much comfort.

The North Korean Communists are not stable, and they may be a threat to other countries, but the Chinese leaders love the status quo. This position paper from PLA should not be taken any more seriously than these kooky right wing American plans to invade Iran, North Korea and Syria over the next six months (or whenever it is).



By the way, I doubt the North Koreans have actually made nuclear weapons. Why should they bother? What use would they have for a bomb? If they used it on anyone they would be blown to smithereens by the U.S. They have all the leverage they need just by claiming to have bombs. I read interviews with retired U.S. scientists from Los Alamos who visited North Korea a few months ago. The Koreans tried to convince them that they have weapons, but the experts saw no credible. They got the impression that Koreans are trying to make everyone think they have weapons. Saddam Hussein did the same thing for a long time, for reasons only he can tell. If the Koreans actually had weapons or a weapons production facility, they could have convinced the Los Alamos experts in 15 minutes.

The NK would not use the weapon, they would sell it. That way they get money and they have someone else do the dirty work and get the blame. Actually, they appear to be using the threat of selling as a way to gain influence and money. As long as a doubt remains about their having a weapon, they are safe from attack. Consequently, they playing poker while we are playing chess.

I doubt there will be an energy war -- either economic or the shooting kind of war. Fixing the energy crisis with conventional alternative energy would be at least a thousand times cheaper. But if there is conflict over energy, it will prove how right Arthur C. Clarke was when he wrote in 1963:

Cheaper yes, doable no. The oil companies will not give up the power and money they are making. A lot of things would be cheaper, but they are not done because too much pride and ignorance are involved.

"The heavy hydrogen in the seas can drive all our machines, heat all our cities, for as far ahead as we can imagine. If, as is perfectly possible, we are short of energy two generations from now, it will be through our own incompetence. We will be like Stone Age men freezing to death on top of a coal bed."


That should be, "Stone Age barbarians."

It is great to believe that mankind would act in an ideal and rational way - it helps a person sleep nights. However, too many examples of opposite behavior are available to count on the ideal occurring- or am I just getting too old?


Regards,
Ed

- Jed



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