Jed wrote: > Mike Carrell wrote: > > >Let's see: Mills has published his book and updated it periodically. He has > >sponsored experimental work at universities and reputable laboratories > >before acquiring the present property. He has posted detailed reports on a > >long series of experiemts on his website. He has published critical papers > >in leading scientific journals, including the Journal of Applied Physics . . . > > All well and good, but this sort of thing will convince practically no one, > whereas if the 1992 Thermacore tests had continued they would have > convinced everyone by 1994.
It's really not intended to convince anyone, but to establish a track record useful in what could be a major patent battle. People are convinced by doing their own experiments with their own hands and seeing results. This is due diligance, and is in progress. Suppose you put a dozen of those Thermacore > cells into the hands of willing people -- people I personally know at > institutions all over the world. Then you upload reports from those people > to web sites such as LENR-CANR.org and Mills' own site. Within a year you > would convince hundreds of thousands of people that these results are real. > And you would place thousands more identical cells (charging the > researchers whatever it costs for the materials). Within two years you > would convince everyone in the world. The thermacore units were bulky and produced a good thermal signal, but were a long, long way from commercial usefulness. this was also at the timne of the F&P frenzy, and the two issues were confused by many. Mills kept his distance. <snip> > He has kept everything that matters secret! He had the ability to convince > everyone in 1992 and he has not taken a single step to do it. He told me in > person on the telephone that he does not want to convince people, and that > this strategy is deliberate. He also told Gene that. There are several ways to read those tea leaves. He has all along addressed an influential few; investors and corporate officers and technical staff, not the public. He doesn't need to until all the pieces are in place. He doesn't want to be distracted by public argument and appeals to the peanut gallery. You can read this as being a con game, but there are other ways to read it. Certainly one has to entice investors about dreams of future wealth, it is done all the time, but with all the publication and posting Mills has done, it is extreme to talk about "secrets". > > Mills publication strategy is a cat and mouse game intended to convince > just a few people so that he can entice investors, form a "secret > conspiracy," and develop the thing on his own. That's more or less what > Mills told me, and it sure looks that way. Jed, this is what you want to see. Lots of people rushed to try the F&P experiment and only a few succeeded, and became converts. Most failed. Mills is not pushing forward toward development until he is certain that he can technically support the necessary development effort. This is exactly the same > strategy practiced by Reding, and by the Wright brothers between 1903 and > 1908. As one biographer said of the Wrights, it was a "tragic mistake." And > a perfectly stupid waste of time. As I recall, Reding turned down the buyout offer from Motorola, being a MBA, thinking that they could reap a greater fortune on their own, not realizing that the technical work was shakey. Jed went to the mat in defense of Patterson's demo because he was there and ran his own tests. Miley duplicated Patterson's cell fromthe patent with some advice, and became a convert. Why did this technology not blossom? Because there were fatal flaws not perceived. > <snip> > > AT&T nearly failed at commercializing the transistor in 1948 thanks to > Shockley's ego and his opposition to Teal. I recall a remark attributed to Mills that he is not repeating Schockley's mistakes, keeping a low profile and spending investor's money carefully. Centralized development under one decision maker or "Tzar" > never works. Mills is trying to set himself up to be that Tzar, which means > the effort must fail sooner or later. Again, Jed is seeing what he wants to. As long as the theory is dismissed by the establishment, Mills has the vision to carry forward to establish the necessary technical base with patentes to protect his partners. There will be a phase where the game is played as Jed suggests, with many, many copycats. That's just fine. I have heard Mills remark that he wished more people tried his experiments; they are not at all difficult for a well equipped lab. These are not the actions of someone "keeping a secret". > <snip> I still don't think Jed gets it. He is castigating Mills for > >following the path he is holding up as an illustration above. > > Mike does not seem to understand what I am castigating Mills for: > > 1. Keeping secrets. He is not keeping secrets, his website and patent applications are nearly full disclosure. There is 'knowhow' acquired by anyone who actually works with the technology and is shared with those who purchase licenses. Standard industrial practice. > 2. Trying to control development. How has he done this? He publishes details of experiments on his website, and a book of the theory. He is not stopping anyone from setting up the experiments and observing for themselves. All he wants in the long run is royalties for commercial use. Standard practice. > 3. Trying to make himself "development Tzar" the way Shockley did. Huh? What gives you *that* idea in the face of publications, presentations, and apaers? No he's not doing what **you** want him to do, but that does not make him a Tsar. The lab work is done by others, whose names are on the papers, even critics are credited with useful suggestions. He is clearly the leader and director within his domain. Somehow, I still think Jed doesn't 'get it'. <sdnip> > > >Not quite. he is doing what the Wright brothers did, studying the > >technology, building wind tunnels, testing wings, etc. He is ***not*** > >trying to build a DC-3. Jed, what gives you this idea? > > *Mills* himself gave me this idea! That is not consistant with conversations and emails I have had with Mills. I'd like to see the exact words and context, for I think Jed is misreading something. And Mike Carrell repeated it yesterday > when the described the 1992 Thermacore cells as "not practical" and where > he said "scaling up to industrial levels takes lots of money and other > skills." If Mills' plan calls for "scaling up to industrial levels" now, > before the technology is revealed, accepted, and before we get hundreds of > thousands of people working on it, his plan does not have a snowball's > chance in hell. History does not work that way. The technology ** is** revealed, and will be accepted when commercial devices appear. What seems to be missing here is the nature of the gap between lab demonstrations of effects, amply documented, and a commercially working device. There is no mystery here, just a lot of sweat like the gap between a point-contact trasnistor and an IC. I understand enough to see the path that has to be traveled, and it is a tough one. You either do it yourself and pay the price, or license that help from one who has gone there. I could go on at some length about the problem of scale up, and have done so on occasion, but I'm not sure how many here would follow me. > <snip> > He needs 100,000 people! You cannot do it with fewer than that. To change civilization, yes. To develop the technology, no. <snip> >And so it will with BLP technology. Nobody denies this, including Mills. > > He needs that *now* before anything begins. Jed, why aren't thousands now doing CF experiments since high school students have some success? BLP is passing a threshold where what you want may start happening soon. > > > >There is nothing hidden, only a failure to preceive. > > Mills has deliberately sought to limit, channel and prevent perception. > That is what he told me, and I believe him. I do not understand why Carrell > disputes this; he should ask Mills directly, as I did. Jed, exactly what was said, in what context, and **when**? 1992 is not BLP of the past several years. What was appropriate at one time and one context is not what Mills has been doung. As I've said, your focus has properly been on CF, with vigor and to good effect. I've been watching Mills closely, and what you recall from a 1992 conversation is not consistant with what he has been doing since. One has to devote significant time and effort in reading reports, etc., as you have done for CF. > > > understands what he sees will be properly impressed. Mizuno is one of the > > > few people on earth who will show his work to any qualified person. The > > > others all play hide and seek. > > > >So, Jed, why are not people standing in line to buy Muzino cells? > > His cell is very difficult to demonstrate and the demonstration is not as > convincing as the 1992 Thermacore demo was. His cell is also dangerous. As > everyone here knows a few months ago it blew up while he was demonstrating > it to an unnamed VIP. Well, there you go. Should everyone start buidling Mizuno cells in their basements? One could say that the explosion was a matter of a cell doing what every CF cell should do -- not explode -- but release major energy. But these are now seen as accidents, not the norm. Mike Carrell
