"The brain does not execute coded instruction; instead it activates links, or synapses, between neurons. Each such activation is equivalent to executing a digital instruction, so one can compare how many connections a brain activates every second with the number of instructions a computer executes during the same time. Synaptic activity is staggering: 10 quadrillion (10^16) neural connections a second. It would take a million Intel Pentium powered computers to match that rate -- plus a few hundred megawatts to juice them up."
So computers are already within a factor of 1 million. Perhaps they will have to come within a 3 to 5 orders of magnitude before they begin to look intelligent to us. I think they will also need radically new software. My sense is that programs like Cyc will not cut the mustard. I have no idea how long it will take. Anywhere from 50 to 500 years, I suppose. Fortunately, the interim devices will be profitable, so progress toward intelligent machines seems inevitable.
- Jed
