Jones Beene wrote:
On Vortex, many have lamented the ongoing disappointment through the years
in solar energy conversion, especially in silicon solar cells - which now
look almost as UNeconomical as ever - without, that is, the *huge* tax
breaks that have given them some additional gasps of life.
That was true for a long time, but at least in Japan it is no longer the
case. See the graph on page 8 of the reference I posted the other day:
http://www.southeastgreenpower.net/2005/presentations/ChrisOBrien.pdf
This shows that government subsidies for solar cells have been phased out,
but sales are exploding, from a few thousand residential systems in 1994
when the subsidy was high, up to 80,000 this year. The price has fallen by
69%. The subsidy worked -- it effectively established the market. The same
can be said for wind turbine subsidies in the 1980s, which have also been
largely phased out. (Remaining subsidies for both wind and solar energy are
far smaller than the continued subsidies for fossil and nuclear fuel.)
The high cost of electricity in Japan makes PV solar much more cost
competitive than it would be in the U.S., and unlike Germany, the climate
is ideal for it. (Germany has much better wind resources than Japan.)
I do not know how Sharp and the other Japanese manufacturers have done it,
but they must have reduced the silicon content to achieve these low costs.
There is a lot to be said for subsidies in the early phases of technology.
They have a long history. For example, they were essential to establishing
ocean-going steamships in the 1840s. (River steamships had so many
advantages, they were established without government help.) The sailing
ship industry and the newspapers attacked the subsidies, but I think most
historians agree they were a good idea.
- Jed
