The Asahi newspaper Japanese edition reported on July 10 that Germany has
overtaken Japan as the world's largest producer of photovoltaic PV solar
energy panels. Both countries report a large increase in production and a
rapidly falling cost per watt.
2004 PV production was 270 MW in Japan, an increase of 1.2 times (120%),
and 360 MW in Germany, a 2.4 times increase. The installed base is now ~800
MW in Japan and ~1,100 MW in Germany (judging from the graphs in the
newspaper articles.) The Germans have some solar "mega-locations," such as
a soccer field stadium, with over 1 MW of capacity. Japan has not attempted
any similar "mega-location" project, which is why it has slipped into
second place in production.
Kyocera is the largest PV producer in Japan.
. . .
That is impressive, but PV is still far behind wind energy. In 2004, wind
energy increased worldwide by 7,976 MW, and the installed total reached
47,317 MW. You have to apply a fudge factor to compare this to coal or
nuclear power, because actually production is usually 30% of nameplate
power (40% for offshore turbines). However, this fudge factor is not needed
to compare wind to solar, because solar is also greatly reduced by cloudy
weather and night. Fortunately, both wind and solar tend to be strongest
when they are most needed. That is especially true of PV in sunny, hot
places like Japan where air conditioning is widespread.
Also, it should be noted that PV last 10 - 15 years, and they degrade
rapidly after 10 years, whereas wind turbines last 20 years and do not
degrade measurably.
When you apply the fudge factor to last year's increase of 7,976 MW in wind
power, it works out to be the same as adding 2.1 brand new, average U.S.
nuclear plants, run at that actual measured average capacity factor. In
other words, the world has 18 giant nuclear fusion power plants (solar
fusion), and it is building 2 more per year. Compare that to the 103 U.S.
fission plants. It is *very* impressive compared to ITER and other
pie-in-the-sky plans. I cannot understand why some people, such as V.P.
Cheney, think that wind power is marginal or unimportant.
The "Wind Force 12 Plan" calls for wind power to supply 12% of world
electricity by 2020. This would be 12% of the demand in 15 years, when
total demand is expected to increase by 66%. The plan calls for 1,245,000
MW total wind capacity, 26 times more than we now have. It seems doable to
me, but I very much doubt that the U.S. and other major governments will
support it.
- Jed
