Re: OT: The RumsFlu strike hard

[Jones Beene]

Relax Jed, - I prefaced the remarks with the hope that the story was not totally accurate, even if the Gilead/Rumsfeld part of it is totally accurate - but you are definitely incorrect on several details about influenza despite your supposed high level contacts at CDC.   The CDC has recently admitted publicly that a specific vaccine for humans which is effective in preventing this strain of avian influenza has not yet been developed - and that Tamiflu is only a stopgap of limited usefullness for healthy adults. End of Story. > Bush has sought to downplay this  information, not to warn us about it. You must have been watching another channel. > Beene may dismiss this threat, but experts at the CDC (pals of mine) and elsewhere are *very* worried about it. That is their job. Your dog barks when he hears anyone at the door, even you neighbor, that is his job. > Influenza is one of the most deadly diseases. Any outbreak is a serious > matter. Most of the steps now being taken to combat avian flu will help > prevent or control other forms of influenza and other diseases. Any disease is serious. We should be talking about the cost effectiveness of the solution. Every strain is different. Last years avian flu is markedly different from this years. Last year's shot won't work well either. End of Story. > For example, vaccine production is being modernized and sped up. Let us hope this can be done in time. There is no effective vaccine now for this new strain of avian flu. End of Story.   >>This totally invented hoax is then used to justify the purchase of 80 >>million doses of Tamiflu, a worthless drug that in no way shape or form >>treats the avian flu . . .   > Published clinical studies indicate that it is effective. Beene should cite > a paper to back up his claim. Here is a broader study from CDC, but apparently Dr. Butler is not one of your aforementioned friends. Obviously they can't do a study on this current strain of Avian flu until next year. Every year you need to find the new strain ahead of time. Avain flu is no different from any other flu in this regard. Some experts will tell you that all human flu has an avian-based gene pool. Researchers at CDC found that in general giving workers a flu vaccine costs much more than not vaccinating -- as much as $65.59 more per person during one flu season. It would be much more with the high cost and non-specificity of Tamiflu. Dr. Carolyn Buxton Bridges of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia and colleagues looked at 1,184 employees of the Ford Motor Company during the 1997-1998 flu season and 1,191 during the 1998-1999 season.   Half of these people received the vaccine. Half did not.   During the first season, the flu shot did not make a dent in flu cases.   This is because the strains included in the vaccine did not match the strains that actually circulated that year. The strains miss as often as the hit. During the second season, the vaccine did match perfectly for the circulating flu strains and significantly cut illness but not cost: 1% of the vaccinated workers got the flu, while 10% of unvaccinated workers did. 90% of the unvaccinated workers did not catch the flu. Nevertheless, even during the second season, the cost of vaccinating half of the workers still outweighed the economic benefits by over $11 per person at Ford in this example. Dr. Bridges told Reuters Health that most of the respiratory illnesses healthy adults get during the flu season are not the flu at all. Vaccination, when the strains matched perfectly, did prevent illness and cut back on doctor visits and missed workdays, but only during one of the two flu seasons studied. Last year in the USA the strains did not match well yet there was no big epidemic. According to guidelines, people older than 65, the chronically ill, and women who will be in their second or third trimester of pregnancy during flu season are some of the groups who should get vaccinated. According to all reports Tamiflu is a broad based vaccine and not specifically targeted to the current avian strain, so we are just like the Ford study in the first year. Not useful. Jones