Stephen A. Lawrence wrote:
The only reasonable alternative to a gasoline plug-in hybrid is a
diesel plug-in hybrid.
Is this really true? A pure EV car would be lighter, simpler, and
cheaper than a hybrid. The only place it falls down on is range.
I could be wrong, but that is my gut feeling, having driven a hybrid.
I as told Chris Zell, an EV might work in Japan or China, but not the
U.S. Here are some reasons.
People do drive long distances in the US. Plus, even if you normally
drive only short distances, there are bound to be times when you need
to go farther. Suppose you drive 30 miles on Monday and you plan to
drive 40 on Tuesday but you forget to plug the thing in overnight. Or
suppose you are moving to another town, or you have a temporary job
assignment that calls for a much longer commute than normal. Or your
gasoline car is in the shop.
Hybrids seem to have a head start. I expect the premium for the
hybrid ICE motor is smaller than it was at first, and it will
continue to decrease. A pure EV requires many more batteries which
are expensive. (A plug-in hybrid will not need as many batteries as a
pure EV.) Once the technology comes along that answers a need, or
fills a niche market, it becomes more difficult for a second
technology to displace it, even when the second one has some advantages.
For decades people have been saying there's a niche market there for
cheap and efficient range-limited vehicles, and I don't see how the
presence of hybrids changes that.
Well, hybrids are reasonably cheap and getting cheaper, and they are
efficient. The plug-in variety will have nearly every advantage of
the EV. The only added complexity in them will be the ICE and the gas
tank. The transmission does not seem expensive, and it is rugged and
simple. The software used to control this complex combination of
motors and transmission probably cost hundreds of millions of dollars
to develop, but it's paid for, and I doubt the cost comes to much per
vehicle. In other words, if hybrids did not exist yet and you had to
create one from scratch at the same time others were developing EV,
it would be more difficult to compete, but they have bloomed in the
absence of EVs. They have the advantages of "contingency and
incumbency" as Gould put it. (See my book, chapter 7, section 2.)
- Jed
