Charles <[email protected]> wrote: > 'We are a research group at the Biozentrum, University of Basel, > Switzerland <https://www.biozentrum.unibas.ch/>. We are broadly > interested in evolution, ecology, and population genetics with a focus on > rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV, influenza virus, or pathogenic > bacteria.' > > https://neherlab.org/covid19/ > This is a excellent modeling program. It takes into account many different parameters. I poked around with it for a while. I don't yet understand how to use it properly, but let me make a few basic observations:
Set this for "United States." On the top left, set the "epidemiology" parameter to "Slow/North" and the projection for March 21 (yesterday) comes out 19,624 cases, 260 deaths. The actual total for yesterday was 24,207, 302 deaths. So, the model is remarkably close to yesterday with that setting. This model assumes the control parameters will not change. That's unrealistic! We are not a flock of birds with no control over the epidemic. Of course the parameters will change as people are frightened and they begin to follow orders and stay in their houses. How much they will change I myself cannot predict. I hope epidemiologists can predict this, and advise government officials. Obviously, the parameters could have changed completely, enough to extinguish the epidemic weeks ago in the U.S., if only our political leaders had learned from S. Korea and Japan. And learned what not to do from Italy. Alas, they did not, and now whatever happens, we will surely pay a high price. How high? This model predicts 223,000 deaths by Sept. 1. The epidemic continues after that, but . . . um . . . I cannot figure out how to extend this graph.
