Hi, Thank you for your thoughts. I happened to catch your post when I was looking for Promed emails in my inbox.
A discussion that I saw talked about how the size of the virus load (the inoculum) may affect disease progression. They said that getting a few virions from touching a handrail may lead to a longer and milder buildup to symptoms (if any) than receiving a huge load of virions (for example , being coughed at directly in the face), which may lead to a very rapid onset of worse symptoms. (In the latter case, the immune system has to fight many battles at once while trying to learn about the enemy; whereas in the first case, it can take some time to learn and mount a response.) So the severity of some of these outbreaks may be a direct function of how efficiently the infected (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) infected the never infected. An interesting article about a town in Italy that checked everyone is at https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183 They actually found people who were infected but were asymptomatic. Once all the infected were quarantined, the infection basically died out. IMHO, The big problem in this epidemic is that there are a percentage of asymptomatic (or minimally symptomatic) infected people, who go around (inadvertently) infecting others. It's a perfect design from the virus' point of view, not so much from ours. SO it looks like test, test, test and isolate all who test positive - symptomatic or not. And as we do over here in Asia, everyone wear a mask - whether feeling well or not. One other thing no one seems to talk about is using UVC lights (LED, florescent, deuterium) to disinfect things. Also there exist florescent UVC lights that are designed to fit into HVAC vents to kill bacteria, mites, and viruses. A comment (on a video) by an electrician in a large building was that when the UVC lights in the HVAC ducts were working, the absenteeism reduced by 30%, and likewise increased by a similar amount when they were out of order (evidently the management took its time repairing things when they broke or so I infer). I know this is anecdotal data, but it begs consideration. And it's a cheap solution for all central HVAC systems (even those on cruise ships). Oh well, my 2 cents. Stay well everyone! Jim Dickenson Kanagawa, Japan On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 12:33 AM Jones Beene <[email protected]> wrote: > Mardi Gras this year, as we now realize was a 'perfect storm' for virus > spread in New Orleans... It seemed at first like a statistical outlier as > there was a fairly long delay and cause-and-effect are always a politically > touchy subject. > This worldwide festival at the start of Lent is also celebrated in Spain > and Italy and elsewhere, under different names. Italy, Spain and New > Orleans are three areas of the World where the virus spread extremely > rapidly. > > Coincidence, omen or what? It is hard to think that all three instances > are not connected to a common statistical model. OTOH if there is a > direct connection to the dynamics of viral spread with Carnival, then why > was Rio, the biggest party of all - left out from the devastation? > > ... or was it? > > Sadly accurate numbers may be hidden away in what is normally a higher > than average death rate - and the worst viral devastation of all has yet to > be announced. >
