Nor does it take into effect phenomenon like old/tapped wells filling back up by unknown means (does anyone really still believe decayed organic material is the sole/primary feedstock?). Nor does it take into effect population adjusters like war, global epidemics, and environmental disasters.
Running out of oil will be the least of our concerns if we have a sudden on-set of another ice age due to pole flip or planet warming (geothermal magnetic induction, green house gas run-away, solar output increases, etc.) I put these analysis in the same column as the 5-day weather forecast. Possibly true, but likely not going to happen like that. -john -----Original Message----- From: Robin van Spaandonk [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, July 26, 2006 10:18 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [Vo]: The Military and Hubbert In reply to Terry Blanton's message of Wed, 26 Jul 2006 21:32:07 -0400: Hi, [snip] >If we maintain a mean consumption of 10^8 barrels per day (it's around >88 mbpd now), 10^12 will last 10^4 days, or totally deplete in 2033. >We will be bankrupt and dead long before that. Idiots. [snip] If you start at the current usage and calculate in an annual growth rate of 2%, it will only last till 2030. World population growth rate is currently about 1.14% (and has been dropping, see http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=xx&v=24), but industrial development means that fuel consumption grows faster than the population. Even at 1.14% it would only last until 2033. Nevertheless, the 1E12 bbl estimate apparently doesn't include the shale oil in the US, which should roughly double the total reserves (See http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser/shale/shale.asp ). Taking this into account and still assuming a growth rate of only 1.14%, we have till 2053. At 2% it would last till 2046. BTW none of the above takes into account that rising prices will suppress demand. For a very interesting read see also http://www.greatchange.org/ov-simmons,club_of_rome_revisted.html Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://users.bigpond.net.au/rvanspaa/ Competition provides the motivation, Cooperation provides the means.
