In reply to John Steck's message of Thu, 27 Jul 2006 23:42:15 -0500: Hi, [snip] >Nor does it take into effect phenomenon like old/tapped wells filling back >up by unknown means
While this is apparently happening to some extent in some cases, it clearly can't keep up with demand, or the US wouldn't be importing any oil. >(does anyone really still believe decayed organic >material is the sole/primary feedstock?). No I. >Nor does it take into effect >population adjusters like war, global epidemics, and environmental >disasters. True, but these things have always been around, and oil consumption seems to keep growing nevertheless. > >Running out of oil will be the least of our concerns if we have a sudden >on-set of another ice age due to pole flip or planet warming (geothermal >magnetic induction, green house gas run-away, solar output increases, etc.) Since oil depletion and global warming go hand in hand, we will likely have both. Though it's possible that the high price of oil will eventually mitigate global warming to some extent. > >I put these analysis in the same column as the 5-day weather forecast. >Possibly true, but likely not going to happen like that. The only way we are going to dodge this bullet, is if we come up with a major alternative. A hurricane might be a better analogy. You know it's coming, and you know it will be dangerous, you just don't know precisely where or when it will make landfall. The difference is that when a hurricane is coming, people take measures to protect themselves from the effects, rather than running around trying to convince others that there are no such things as hurricanes. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://users.bigpond.net.au/rvanspaa/ Competition provides the motivation, Cooperation provides the means.
