On 30/5/2007 1:51 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > Harry Veeder wrote: > >> Westerners have become so dependent on oil consumption that we will continue >> to buy more of it even as the price rises. It is too late to expect rising >> oil prices to reduce the demand for oil. People complain and complain about >> the price but still the demand rises. > > Many people have said this in the newspapers, but I disagree. I know > many people who waste gasoline, and who could easily and permanently > reduce their consumption. For example, many of the families my > Atlanta neighborhood own both an SUV and a regular car. They can > leave the SUV at home and commute with a regular car, and cut their > fuel consumption in half. We also have a glut in fiber optic > capacity. My office landlord has begun offering free Internet and > telephone connections to all tenants. This means a company could set > up telecommuting and satellite offices cheaply, with high-speed video > connections.
A nation could decide collectively to supply a publicly financed broadband service to anyone using a computer, much as anyone using a vehicle already gets to use a publicly financed highway system. Harry > Beyond that, we could dramatically reduce traffic congestion by > charging variable tolls, the way they do in London, England. This > reduces fuel consumption because the cars run at more efficient > speeds and because many people stay home or carpool. The medium age > of automobiles has risen to 9 years > (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/onh2p3.htm) but that still means > that if we get serious, we could replace most cars and nearly all > SUVs with hybrids and plug-in hybrids a decade from now. At that > point, U.S. consumption would be reduced by about half, and we would > be exporting oil to Japan. We might as well export it, since the > stuff will be worthless a few years after that. > > The point is, people are not going to pay $5 or $10 per gallon for > long. They will develop substitutes such as plug-in hybrids, that > reduce consumption by a factor of 10 or more, or eliminate oil it > completely. We have not replaced oil up until now because there has > been no economic incentive, and because we are lazy. Not because we > are stupid or incapable of doing it. We could have done it decades ago. > > By the way, some news reports in the US say that the US gasoline > prices are rising because of refinery capacity shortages. I doubt it. > The Japanese television news reports that their gasoline prices are > rising exactly as much, and they have no shortage of refineries. The > effect is worldwide. I assume this means oil production has peaked. > > - Jed >
