R.C.Macaulay wrote:
Howdy Vorts,
With all the energy info rhetoric eminating out of D.C. and news
sources do you sense the public is expecting too much from the energy
industry?
What is your predicted time line for the first really serious "bump"
in the road ?
Richard
I'm an Aussy so D.C. is almost irrelevant and has been for some years
now. We are looking at some major options including clean coal and we’re
in a good position in terms of solar, etc. We have even combined the two
solar coal gassification.
The Capitalisation of the green energy sector only requires someone with
a little brains to realise that a company that combines the emerging
household energy technologies and mortgage finance beats Government
subsidies hands down. In the ACT we have polititions writing legistation
for green-energy buyback, running the meter backwards on solar, wind etc.
We have a sugar industry that makes ethanol using no fossil fuel input
at the factory and could do so at the farm level, ethanol powered
tractors. We have one of the best wave power sites in the world at Bass
strait and we are laying the first cables on that sea bed.
If you look at Peswiki you see 3 to 5 new projects a day. Any one of
which if fully developed could produce 20-30% of the worlds fuel
requirments and 10% of its grid energy requirements. With 100+ projects
each with the potential of meeting 10% of the demand we don’t have an
energy crisis were heading for a solutions glut.
We, here in Australia, have too many projects chasing the limited amount
of venture capital our economy produces. Contrary to popular belief
carbon taxes and carbon credits will not finance the key technologies.
As government run programs they are risk averse lenders, And with many
solutions here now it is a higher risk game.
World wide we now have 6 ethanol technologies as well as, Butanol,
methanol ~ dimethyle ether, biogas methane, Compressed air cars, a dozen
new electrics a month, commercial solar cars hitting the roads. The
question realy is What Energy Crisis! Govenments rarely lead but often
follow when the time comes. We are in a R & D boom right now. It is
starting to deliver a huge crop of new energy technologies. An energy
polyculture as diverse as any garden. Like the dotcom boom there are
billions to be made and yes lost. Like the dotcom boom battles over
compatabilty will rage (and that’s where the big buck are). Like the
dotcom boom government demands for certain security measures, ie the
public encryption/ clipper chip debacle, will some how kill the boom.
I agree the middle-east will be a nuclear war zone soon if the hard line
Mullahs in Iran get the bomb. Israel will not be the main target the
Sunni cities will be. Israel may need to strike first and soon. Pakistan
already has a bomb and is visibly teatering. Imagine a nuclear armed
Pakistan run by President Osama Bin laden. He knows where the action is.
If we see a real war in the middle-east oil will go to prices that will
be spectacular but we now have hundreds of companies ready to go with
solutions. If oil goes to $150 a barrel the debate about subidies would
be over; the rush to clear the red tape will be on and those that stand
in the way of the new green giant will be stomped on.
The real battlelines will not be about oil; it will be Coal verses the
hundreds of new energy technologies. The Coal miners will be a greater
threat than the industry. Remember when Margaret Thatcher took them on
people died. According to a news report the prime suspects for the
dioxin poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko, current president of Ukraine, are
coal miniers from eastern Ukraine. They had access to dioxin and
Yushchenko at the time of the poisoning and his pro-europe position was
seen as an anticoal position because of Europe’s strong greenhouse
stand. Conspiracies aside Viktor Yanukovych his main opponent is
supported by the eastern ukranian coal lobby.
Clean coal is a way to avoid such comnflicts but whether it can be
financially viable is debated. In Order to defuse the coal/ greenhouse
problem it needs to be very cheep. That’s a huge challenge. And if the
US congress does something stupid that will just drive the USA to get a
real parliament. ;-)
I’m Ok Jack I’m half a world away.
