On Jul 9, 2007, at 4:51 AM, R.C.Macaulay wrote:
Howdy Vorts,
Lets have your brief forecasts on the potential for advances of new energy
technology for the next 5 years running.
My 2 cents:
Renewables may not be considered "new energy" but that is where the big
action is likely to be the next 5 years. I think it is a no brainer solar
power is going to take off like a gold rush. Solar and wind power storage
technology will help the ramp up. Wind power will continue its exponential
growth, but will be dwarfed by solar. It would not be surprising to see a
backlash price drop on oil and/or coal, or their derivatives, for a while,
if only in a desperate attempt to destabilize things. Oil shocks due to
social upheavals or war are also likely. Lobbying on every level to stop
renewables will be furious. Plug in hybrids, biodiesel, natural gas
refits, and/or ethanol vehicles will, in the aggregate take at least a 20
percent market share of autos. New battery technologies will help this
boom. Algoil will start useful production but won't make it to huge like
solar in the next 5 years. Conservation will continue to kick in some
savings. Gas hog drivers will become as popular as smokers. Energy
wasting will finally be recognized as unpatriotic. Home solar energy and
conservation retrofits will become big business in many parts of the
country. Some nuclear plants will be built despite extreme protests.
Zero point energy will be tapped from the nucleus in the first break-even
practically scalable device. It may not make it in 5 years, but it will be
close. It will be the breakthrough for "big power". See:
http://mtaonline.net/~hheffner/NuclearZPEtapping.pdf
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Hi Horace,
A reasonable & conservatively tempered forecast. Can't find much here
to disagree with.
I only question the potential of the petrocracy possessing sufficient
kahunas to muster a price drop no matter futile or fleeting the
maneuver might be. Seems to me that greed, lack of cooperation, and
self-serving national interests are likely to put the kibosh on any
unified attempt. What are they going to flood the market with? Aren't
most wells working at full capacity now?
Of course, the ringer in all of these predictions is when ZPE,
lenr-canr, or BLP, etc, research translates into a recognized
demonstration or commercial product.
Maybe the vortex group should put together a friendly wager, a pool
predicting when the breakthrough is officially recognized. Put a date
limit of, say, ten years from now. (Hopefully, most of us will still
be alive, and I should be retired by then!) The winning date is
defined as when the physics community finally recognized the news, or
public demonstration, or commercial product as "valid physics" AND
that the new "physics" is commercially exploitable. Someone must be
chosen as judge or final arbitrator of the recognized date, someone
who must ethically stay out of the pot. Say, ten bucks or ten
Eurodollars gets you a place holder in the kitty.
When the event finally unfolds and summarily chosen by the judge
he/she who comes closest to that infamous date takes all, especially
bragging rights.
The person who comes in dead last buys everyone a'around at Richard's
favorite Dime Box Saloon. I've been lookin fer an excuse to visit the
establishment. Howdy Richard! ;-)
My 1.973 cents…
Regards,
Steven Vincent Johnson
www.OrionWorks.com
