On Aug 1, 2007, at 11:26 AM, Jones Beene wrote:
Horace
Not at all. My argument was based on current cost per watt. This
is a highly subsidized sweetheart product development deal.
All solar before 2006 has subsidized, especially photovoltaic.
Here are current retail costs from solarbuzz:
Average price in the USA in July 2007 - NOT installed, but just the
module - is $4.84/watt.
The installed cost for homeowners for a guaranteed turnkey
operation is probably double that. The wholesale prices discount
can be 30-40%. The module cost represents around 50 - 60% of the
total installed cost of a Solar Energy System, depending on size.
All prices are exclusive of sales taxes or subsidy. Subsidies have
been abolished in many states, but not sales taxes which can add
8-20% to the prices.
http://www.solarbuzz.com/moduleprices.htm
As of July 2007, there are currently 192 solar module prices below
$4.75/Wp or 13.2% of the total sample. This compares with 218
prices below $4.75 per Watt in June. The lowest retail price for a
multicrystalline solar module is $3.95/Wp from a US retailer. The
lowest retail price for a monocrystalline module is $4.30/Wp
(€3.14Wp), also from a US retailer. The lowest thin film module
price is at $3.00/Wp from a US retailer. As a general rule, it is
typical to expect thin film modules to be at a price discount to
crystalline silicon (for like module powers). [thin film may not
last as long]
You are quoting *current* retail prices. The $2.00 a watt for the
SES units is a *future* manufacturing price, not a retail price. SES
doesn't sell the units they sell the electricity.
IOW the *current* unsubsidized price of photovoltaic appears FAR in
excess of $2.00 watt, as best I can determine - but you seem to
differ.
BTW - One thing that than an apple-to-apple comparison must include
is the lack of tracking for panels. This lack of tracking can mean
that in the course of a day, the actual wattage of electricity for
panels is a fraction of the faceplate (half as much has been
mentioned). Has that been factored in ?
At any rate, to get to this magical $1 watt figure - you seem to
quoting projections
The SES numbers are projections.
and estimates from companies that have never shipped product,
rather than current prices.
First Solar is shipping product from factories in the US, Asia, and
Germany. Their projections are very real numbers.
These estimates are notoriously unreliable - especially when they
come from PR releases - and from PR designed to raise venture capital.
I certainly have to agree there!
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
