Horace
Not at all. My argument was based on current cost per watt. This is a
highly subsidized sweetheart product development deal.
All solar before 2006 has subsidized, especially photovoltaic.
Here are current retail costs from solarbuzz:
Average price in the USA in July 2007 - NOT installed, but just the
module - is $4.84/watt.
The installed cost for homeowners for a guaranteed turnkey operation is
probably double that. The wholesale prices discount can be 30-40%. The
module cost represents around 50 - 60% of the total installed cost of a
Solar Energy System, depending on size. All prices are exclusive of
sales taxes or subsidy. Subsidies have been abolished in many states,
but not sales taxes which can add 8-20% to the prices.
http://www.solarbuzz.com/moduleprices.htm
As of July 2007, there are currently 192 solar module prices below
$4.75/Wp or 13.2% of the total sample. This compares with 218 prices
below $4.75 per Watt in June. The lowest retail price for a
multicrystalline solar module is $3.95/Wp from a US retailer. The lowest
retail price for a monocrystalline module is $4.30/Wp (€3.14Wp), also
from a US retailer. The lowest thin film module price is at $3.00/Wp
from a US retailer. As a general rule, it is typical to expect thin film
modules to be at a price discount to crystalline silicon (for like
module powers). [thin film may not last as long]
IOW the *current* unsubsidized price of photovoltaic appears FAR in
excess of $2.00 watt, as best I can determine - but you seem to differ.
BTW - One thing that than an apple-to-apple comparison must include is
the lack of tracking for panels. This lack of tracking can mean that in
the course of a day, the actual wattage of electricity for panels is a
fraction of the faceplate (half as much has been mentioned). Has that
been factored in ?
At any rate, to get to this magical $1 watt figure - you seem to quoting
projections and estimates from companies that have never shipped
product, rather than current prices.
These estimates are notoriously unreliable - especially when they come
from PR releases - and from PR designed to raise venture capital.
Jones
