Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin'.
Non-Dylanesque Reference for parts of the argument: http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20151/?nlid=854 Looking beyond this interesting advance, and given that advances in cheap computers... http://www.technologyreview.com/Wire/20157/ ...will mean that robotic harvesting of biomass will soon be feasible (the Cat with-an-XBox-brain) an interesting possibility towards the goal of energy self-sufficiency in USA arises. At least for those writers and critics who prophesize with a pen (and a grin). First off - the Georgia, Penn. and Eastern contingents on Vortex have probably visited the beautiful mountain ranges of Appalachia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Ridge_Mountains There are about 750,000 square miles of trees here, and we definitely do not want to change the glorious appearance of these public lands. Out West in the Rockies, etc. there are more acres, but the forests are drier, more fragile, and only slightly less beautiful. A small but important percentage of this forest land is "thinnable" for biomass by once-expensive harvesting techniques, which do not change the 'vista' or outward appearance. This thinning actually eliminates much of the fire hazard (very important consideration for the West). In the East, thinning would increase the solar conversion rate by eliminating the "smoke" from the Smokies, which is every bit as toxic as if it came from a coal-fired grid plant. Even if few trees are cut to do this, and the 'vista' is maintained, there is enough yearly harvestable biomass (on paper, so to speak) derivable from leaves and branches and appropriate thinning of saplings, to supply lots of sustainable transportation fuel. Nice article on how this done in Northern Cal nowadays for grid power- small plants which burn wood chips: http://ucce.ucdavis.edu/files/filelibrary/5098/16265.pdf Using the termite-gut-method and efficient biomimicry for liquid fuel conversion, as outlined in the first citation above (needs to be updated to butanol, which is a better fuel choice than ethanol) it is interesting to look at how much biomass is ultimately available. The last article finds that there is available on a one time basis, about 350,000 pounds of biomass per average forested acre. This can be thinned by 10% once every 10 years to give a sustainable 35,000 pounds of biomass per acre year, and at the same time, greatly reduce the fire risk. Only a fraction of forest land is accessible and flat enough for robotic machinery, but it is possible that out of 4 million square miles (640 acres per mi^2) of public forest, 20% or half a billion acres is harvestable by thinning once every 10 years. That would peg the sustainable biomass resource at ~15 trillion pounds yearly. This could be converted into more than one trillion gallons of sustainable butanol. Theoretically, there would be little real change in the appearance of the forest, as this technique is a long way from clear cutting. But to do it efficiently, that probably demands robotic harvesting, careful planning and hundreds of small standardized plants. IOW a totally committed 'political' effort. Technology-wise, we are not yet to that level of advancement yet, but will be there soon.... thanks to video gamers who cannot see the forest for the screen ;-) BTW per capita consumption of gasoline in the USA is ~475 gallons per year per capita (not per driver). One trillion gallons of sustainable butanol per year would provide the needs of almost all of us. This is despite the ancient data and false assumptions of Pimentel, who did not bother to inform himself (or update his debunked papers) with the latest information about butanol, cellulose conversion, distillation-free enrichment, sustainable forest thinning, etc. etc. etc. The times, they are a changin'... and there's no tellin' who that it's namin'. Jones
