Steve, Don't know if you caught the full impact of the "double paradigm shift" which is looming on the immediate horizon, and which is hinted at the end of this piece.
Probably not to the extent which is verbalized below, since as usual, I am reading-in more information (and personal expectation) than was likey intended by the writer; but anyway, there is appearing (once again) the signs and reverberations of what looks to me like the start of a quantum leap in the evolution of ... hmm ... well, not just the evolution of computers, which Moore's Law is taking care of, but in the evolution of (who/what) will become the dominant "thinker" on Terra ...and eventually maybe even the dominant species. That would be assuming that the dominant-thinker becomes the dominant-species over time. [SIDE NOTE] In truth, at least in the short history of evolution on earth, it has been the dominant predator which becomes the dominant species; and in the case of 'homo sapiens', being able to use logic and thinking has helped greatly in that quest for domination - but most apparently, the details of that help has been in the design and building of, among other things, superior killing machines ;-( Anyway, after that long-winded preamble, here is the quote from the article which portends a double paradigm shift with Darwinian consequences: "Of course 'it' [the ultra-computer based on cheap gaming machines] does cost less, but what needs to be recognized is that it also changes the way people think about problems when they are given a hundred times more computer power." Paradigm shift #1 is reaching the 'tipping point' of raw affordability (MIPS/$) in the hardware. This is what can be called the 'son of x-box' where within 2-4 years (if Moore's Law holds) we will have reached the $100/teraflop level in raw processing power. The very best human brain is 'around' the equivalent of 1-10 teraflops although admittedly this is an impossible comparison to make valid- since the brain is analog not digital. With 'proper software', many experts suspect a 10 teraflop computer will become fully 'verbal' and equal to humans in most respects and far superior in others.... beyond that is anybody's guess. (there is not enough space & time here to counter the Penrose objections to that conclusion. Anyway, back to the unexpected and final step in linked paradigm shifts: "So rather than taking the thing apart you just start moving all the knobs about to see what happens when you change something - just as you might in real life...." Paradigm shift #2, however, goes beyond this (which is a bit short-sighted) and is found in reaching another tipping point of NOT necessarily needing knobs, or human programmers, but instead you just step aside.... That is, you instead of requiring software to utilize that affordable hardware, someone will just give the machine a few basic rules and logic, stand back, plug it in and let it learn and self-educate itself from any and all accessible information resources (mainly the www, of course). Of course you have to teach it to discriminate, weed out the BS and minimize the disinformation and SPAM which is overwhelming the net these days ;-} We are not that far away from this scenario, and yet almost no one outside of the field of AI is aware of the ultimate ramifications of "allowing" this kind of evolutionary jump to continue at its present pace. Except Sci-Fi writers and assorted Vorticians, of course. Jones --- OrionWorks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > The esteemed Mr. Jones might enjoy this article: > > SUBJECT: New supercomputer is a rack of PlayStations > By: Louisa Hearn > February 26, 2008 > > http://www.theage.com.au/cgi-bin/common/popupPrintArticle.pl? > path=/articles/2008/02/26/1203788327976.html > > http://tinyurl.com/2vbc87 > > "What makes the gaming console vastly superior to > high-end computers > for complex research algorithms, Mr Khanna says, is > the Cell chip > built by IBM to facilitate high-end gaming functions > on the latest > generation of consoles." > > Regards > Steven Vincent Johnson > www.OrionWorks.com > www.zazzle.com/orionworks > >
