And you miss my point, Rick. My point is that it does not matter if
the warming is caused by mankind or not. We all benefit if we develop
alternative energy. If this means supporting ALGore, then suck it up
and get on with life.
Ed
On Sep 5, 2008, at 2:25 PM, Rick Monteverde wrote:
Jed -
What you describe below circumvents, for a few special practical
cases, the
fundamental point I made about the use of models. In your examples,
some
components can contain quite a bit of 'inertia' of one form or another
(often as historical and statistical: "When we see A happening here,
then
90% of the time B will follow in about C time and last for D time.
Don't
know why, but it just does.") Those situations can be exploited to
make
useful long term predictions in certain realms, even when the actual
real
world physical drivers are not well known, measurable, or even, as I
have
said, calculable.
Are you missing my point entirely? On purpose? Both you and Ed
essentially
say that I refuse to look at melting ice, and you imply that I'm
like the CF
skeptic who lets papers placed in his hand fall to the floor. My
argument is
not that there is no such thing as climate change. The argument is
whether
there are anthropogenic causes to it. I say that the models are
incapable of
directing that conclusion because of their inherent shortcomings.
Scientists
who are experts in the field also make this observation and have
published
it. Your attempt to mischaracterize my statements as the personal
opinion of
myself alone as a diminished "instant expert" is not only very far
off the
mark, it's surprising from one who seems to share, as observed from
years of
reading your postings on this forum, my view that such rhetorical
tactics
are a poor substitute for an honest and fair minded investigation and
exchange on known facts. I have personal exposure and experience in
computer
science and am capable, just as you claim Gore is, of reading and
understanding the papers of scientists in the field.
If this were CF/LENR I'd be saying "sure I see all that excess
energy from
some obviously extraordinary and non-chemical source, but I think
it's not
caused by this particular mechanism you have proposed. Instead it is
from
some other for which there is better evidence." Not a great analogy,
but
sorta. I don't think anyone has a real solid track yet on what is
behind the
various CF/LENR results. Oh wait, that's what I'm saying about the
cause of
the warming we see. Ok, maybe not so bad after all.
- Rick
-----Original Message-----
From: Jed Rothwell [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Friday, September 05, 2008 9:26 AM
To: vortex-L@eskimo.com
Subject: RE: [Vo]:Sunspotless
Rick Monteverde wrote:
If that were true, weather forecasting computer programs would not
work.
You are correct. You've heard of Lorenz, of course. The programs only
work for a very brief time before their results degrade to useless
noise, so they are only good before they reach that point . . .
Local weather forecasts degrade because they are detailed. Nowadays
they can
make a weather forecast months or even years ahead for large areas
such as
the entire Pacific Ocean, or the trends for the whole of Japan for
several
months, which is now predicted with astonishing accuracy on NHK.
My point is that if experts did not understand the detailed physics
of the
atmosphere, they could not make detailed weather forecasts at all.
That was
the case until the 1960s. Even after satellite photos became available
weather forecasts were not reliable until the physics and
computational
models were improved.
Furthermore, you are ignoring the fact that the global warming experts
predictions have come true in the world is indisputably growing hotter
rapidly, as Ed pointed out. You do not need a computer to see that.
Just
look at melting ice, the level of the Inland Sea, or the average
temperature
of the Pacific ocean water and atmosphere surrounding Japan. Local
temperatures vary of course but over large landmasses and extended
periods
they have been going up. To deny such first-principal observations
is to go
traipsing off into the cloud-cuckoo land of the cold fusion deniers
who do
not believe that thermocouples and thermometers work.
- Jed
