Edmund Storms wrote:
His prediction would be correct if nothing else happened. Now we have two additional variables in play. The first is a world-wide depression. This will reduce energy demand and reduce use of oil - for a while. By the time this is over, new sources and effective conservation methods will be available.
Well, I do not think his price projection is central to Simmons discussion. The price will depend upon many different factors such as energy demand and alternatives. But his main point and his major expertise is in whether oil has reached a peak or not, and what the decline will look like. His name discovery is that the Saudis are grossly exaggerating their reserves. That is what Deffeyes and others have said.
The shape of the decline curve will not vary much no matter what demand is. Larger demand will spur improved extraction technology which will make the curve somewhat shallower at first, and steeper later. Reduced demand will stretch it out. The overall amount of oil that can be extracted does not vary. What I have read is that the improved extraction technology of the last 20 years or so gets the oil out more quickly, but it does not increase total extractable oil much.
In any case, I doubt there is more oil anywhere in the world. If there was, someone would have found it by now. No one has found any large amounts of oil in the US since the Great Depression.
- Jed
