we can check key 11, and MAYBE key four. wow.
On Tue, Oct 7, 2008 at 12:50 PM, Stephen A. Lawrence <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Here's a model developed back around 1980, which was back-tested against > every Presidential election back to 1860, and which has correctly > predicted every election since it was developed (that's six out of six > predictions made in advance and born out): > > http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/Keys_forecast_aug_2007_apsa_by_lichtman.pdf > > or here it is made "tiny" (but note that this is a PDF file): > > http://tinyurl.com/45zk8e > > Apparently, since some time last summer (since before Hillary dropped > out, in fact), it's been predicting a Democratic win this time around. > Note, though, that this predicts the *popular* vote, not the electoral > college vote. So, for instance, it predicted a Gore win, which was a > "correct" prediction if we just look at the popular vote. > > The "model" consists of 13 assertions; if at least 7 are true, the > incumbent party will be re-elected. Interestingly, it is based almost > entirely on actions taken by the incumbent government, with one (1) > question devoted to the personality of the challenger. What's more, it > takes account of no opinion poll results, and no takes account of *no* > actions taken by the opposition! And, no, it's not a hack, or a joke; > as far as I can tell it's completely serious, and its track record is > very surprising. > > Here's an excerpt from the paper, in case anyone has trouble with the > PDF: Here are the assertions (the model consists of the assertions, plus > some clearer definitions). Again, the prediction is that, if at least 7 > are true, the incumbent party will be reelected; otherwise the > opposition will win: > > ========================================= > [begin quote] > > The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent > party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party > wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. > > KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent > party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it > did after the previous midterm elections. > > KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party > nomination. > > KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting > president. > > KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or > independent campaign. > > KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the > election campaign. > > KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the > term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. > > KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major > changes in national policy. > > KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the > term. > > KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major > scandal. > > KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration > suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. > > KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration > achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. > > KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is > charismatic or a national hero. > > KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not > charismatic or a national hero. > >
