>From another list.
Harry
>An astonishingly simple model of Presidential elections
>
> Here's a model developed back around 1980, which was back-tested
> againstevery Presidential election back to 1860, and which has
> correctlypredicted every election since it was developed (that's
> six out of six
> predictions made in advance and born out):
>
>
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/Keys_forecast_aug_2007_apsa_by_lichtman.pdf
>
> or here it is made "tiny" (but note that this is a PDF file):
>
> http://tinyurl.com/45zk8e
>
> Apparently, since some time last summer (since before Hillary dropped
> out, in fact), it's been predicting a Democratic win this time around.
> Note, though, that this predicts the *popular* vote, not the electoral
> college vote. So, for instance, it predicted a Gore win, which was a
> "correct" prediction if we just look at the popular vote.
>
> The "model" consists of 13 assertions; if at least 7 are true, the
> incumbent party will be re-elected. Interestingly, it is based almost
> entirely on actions taken by the incumbent government, with one (1)
> question devoted to the personality of the challenger. What's
> more, it
> takes account of no opinion poll results, and no takes account of *no*
> actions taken by the opposition! And, no, it's not a hack, or a joke;
> as far as I can tell it's completely serious, and its track record is
> very surprising.
>
> Here's an excerpt from the paper, in case anyone has trouble with the
> PDF: Here are the assertions (the model consists of the assertions,
> plussome clearer definitions). Again, the prediction is that, if
> at least 7
> are true, the incumbent party will be reelected; otherwise the
> opposition will win:
>
> =========================================
> [begin quote]
>
> The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent
> party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party
> wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
>
> KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent
> party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it
> did after the previous midterm elections.
>
> KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party
> nomination.
>
> KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting
> president.
>
> KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or
> independent campaign.
>
> KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the
> election campaign.
>
> KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the
> term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
>
> KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major
> changes in national policy.
>
> KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the
> term.
>
> KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major
> scandal.
>
> KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration
> suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
>
> KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration
> achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
>
> KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is
> charismatic or a national hero.
>
> KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not
> charismatic or a national hero.
>
>
