I have been trying to think of product that resembles an electric car
charging station, and I think this is good example.
You can make ice at home in small amounts, rather slowly, but it
usually enough for your needs. When you want a lot of ice in a hurry,
or you are out of town, you can go to the grocery store and buy a bag
of ice. Many gas stations sell ice as well. Most motels have free ice
making machines (which are handy when you travel with a cooler for
drinks and food).
Most of the time you will probably charge an electric car at home at
low power, slowly, just the way you make ice. On rare occasions you
may charge it somewhere else.
High powered electric charge stations for electric cars will resemble
bags of ice in the store and especially motel ice makers, because you
will need them especially while traveling.
It may be that electric chargers will become as widely available as
bags of ice are today. In that case we will have no trouble
travelling, although with batteries instead of supercapacitors, we
will still have to wait longer than it takes to fill a tank. However,
I doubt that chargers will as common as bags of ice. Stores that sell
ice need only a large freezer. Distributors deliver ice along with
frozen produce and the like. An electric charger will probably be
more expensive than a freezer, at least at first.
I expect that sales of ice contribute little to the profit of a
grocery store or gas station. No one could stay in business selling
only ice. I predict there will not be dedicated multi-lane "charge
stations" similar to gas stations. There will only be stores in other
businesses that also offer charges. They will likely be the same
stores that sell ice today.
If a large fraction of the automobile fleet converts to electricity,
gas stations will begin closing in large numbers. In the book I
predict this will happen with cold fusion. This will make it
inconvenient to drive gasoline vehicles, accelerating the trend away
from them. In the last stages, as 80% of the fleet converts to
electricity (or cold fusion) it will impossible to find a gas station
in most cities and towns, and people will be forced to give up the
remaining gasoline powered cars. Some gas stations will remain open
as convenience stores and food stores on the highway, which is what
many of them are already. They make no profit on the gasoline.
Selling ice in the modern era when everyone has a refrigerator does
seem a little like the Zen Buddhist parable of "selling water by the
river." You would think there would be no market, and yet there is.
Chargers will also find a market, but it will be a small, niche
market, not at all like today's gas station.
- Jed
