>From the cdc reports, it has a higher morbidity rate in the 0-9 group, about the same in 10-15, and lower overall in above 15. Of course, significantly higher is misleading. morbidity rate for swine is about 150 percent of seasonal. this seems like a lot, until you realize it means that seasonal flu is killing 5 out of 1000 , and swine killing 8 out of 1000. thats NOT a big difference, and not a big deal. it really isnt. Swine flu has been blown out of proportion. it MIGHT come back as a killer flu like the 1918, but it shows no signs of it yet.
On Thu, Nov 5, 2009 at 2:59 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > This is probably not serious but . . . Stephen A. Lawrence wrote: > >> -- They say it's not very deadly. Well, I guess it's not . . . > > Compared to what? For who? Under what circumstances? > > The swine flu is considerably more deadly, especially for children and young > adults. Most influenza kills elderly people more readily but this one, in > common with the 1918 variety, is particularly bad for healthy young people. > It is similar the 1918 variety because it is genetically related. > > >> -- They say it's not usually very serious. > > That is true of all influenza varieties, except possibly 1918. Most people > recover after a week or so without long term problems. Of course, several > hundred thousand will likely die without a vaccine, but that is only a small > fraction of the total. > > >> Well, I guess it's not; the number of days when it knocks you right over >> flat on your back in bed seems to be smaller than what I recall other flues >> doing. > > Beware of anecdotal evidence or judging by personal experience. Experts in > Japan and the U.S. say it is worse than usual. > > >> -- They say it may stick around a little longer than usual... and hey, >> man, they are right! > > It also started earlier, far out of the usual flu season in the Northern > Hemisphere. Not sure of the Southern Hemisphere. > > It will not stick around once the vaccines become widely available . . . > unless large numbers of people are very, very stupid, and refuse to take it. > > - Jed > >
