Jones Beene wrote:
However, apparently there has been some kind of falling-out with Rossi, and as you can see there is no mention of any of this on the website. It seems he is being marginalized.
I just hope that someone else in the world knows how to make the material, in case something happens to Rossi.
You may or may not agree, but it is clear to me that this drama in Bologna was hastily staged, not ready for prime-time, and will end up being a disaster for Rossi and LENR in general -- when all of the details emerge.
I do not think it was hasty. They have conducted the test many times since mid-December and before that it was done many times at other locations. Details will emerge within a week. These people have thought carefully about the calorimetry and particle detection.
First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years.
This will not be a problem at first, because of an odd situation. When Melvin Miles was conducting cold fusion experiments in the early 1990s, some people in the Navy tried to shut him down because they said these were nuclear tests and there were safety concerns. I think they were using that as an excuse, and they wanted to close him down because they're opposed to cold fusion. However, he pointed to the New York Times and other sources and to previous statements made by Navy management to the fact that cold fusion does not exist, and he said if it does not exist it cannot be nuclear. So they had to let him continue.
In other words, before the NRC licenses Rossi, they would have to first declare this is a nuclear effect. They would be loath to do that for obvious reasons. It would open the floodgates. Everyone would suddenly realize that cold fusion is real. At present, I'm sure the DoE, the NRC and other agencies will it is an experimental error or a scam, so it is none of their business. So I think it will be a number of years before any US government agency does anything to regulate this.
Having said that, I agree this is a bad business plan. They should not try to sell practical devices at this stage. Sooner or later they will run into huge problems with Underwriters Laboratory and regulatory agencies. Even if they overcome these problems there is a limit to how how many machines you can manufacture and how much money you can make before the patent expires. I think they should instead try to sell thousands of small scale devices to researchers around the world. Later when manufacturing begins by major corporations they should try to cash in on the patents. I urged Rossi to consider this strategy but he politely rejected it.
Rossi was more polite and coherent about his business strategy than most cold fusion researchers. He is a strange fellow in many ways, but I did not get the sense he is trying to scam someone, or hide something that he has no right to hide (such as plagiarized research). As I said before, the name of his web site and other things about him practically cry out "Scam!!!" yet he himself, in his communications with me, never gave me that impression. (We have only had brief exchanges, plus I have spoken with people who observed his experiments.) It is disconcerting. It is a disconnect. The big picture gives every impression of being a fake, but when you focus in, suddenly the image resolves into what looks like the real McCoy. Naturally, this gives me the willies. I find it hard to understand why a real scammer would be so careless as to make himself look like a scammer in so many ways, with a preposterous web site name and claims so seemingly overblown, they would embarrass the Correas. As a scam, it seems too over-the-top and blatant. I have not encountered a scammer who makes no effort to disguise himself as a legitimate scientist, and who does not at least try to imitate conventional academic discourse.
I have talked to many researchers and inventors who seemed much less honest. I do not trust Rossi because I never trust anyone until they have been independently replicated. The tests at U. Bologna do not meet the standard of an independent replication, especially since professors were not allowed to look inside the box! Still, this kind test is more convincing than a claim made by a researcher himself without any verification by others. It is a good first step.
I do not follow the work of Mills closely, but I am not aware that he has demonstrated a heat-producing device as impressive as this, or on such a large scale. Needless to say, no other cold fusion researcher has come close. They could not have scaled up this much because the devices cannot be controlled and it would be extremely dangerous to try. A large scale reaction alone does not add to scientific credibility. McKubre's calorimetry is so good that his data is as believable as this, or as any data could be. However, scaling up does prove that the device is close to practical applications which is enormously important.
Despite Rossi's peculiarities and the rumors swirling about about his past, I think it is likely his claims are real. I cannot think of any way this result could be faked. I will grant, I have not given it much thought yet. The skeptics will come up with a thousand reasons but I predict that not one of them will hold water. They will crackpot theories along the lines of rats drinking the water from Mizuno's bucket. Or they will be empty assertions, such as Prof. Peatbog's.
- Jed
