Jones, I often disagree with you, but this time I have to say your
suspicions ring a chord. Something doesn't smell right here.
Please check me on this, because I'm not sure I've got it right. And
feel free to yell at me; I realize I'm going kind of far on not much
evidence.
* The basic work for this process was done by other (clearly
legitimate) researchers some years back, but the usual problems
with reproducibility etc dogged them.
* Rossi, apparently building on that earlier work, has found the
Holy Grail: He can produce large quantities of high grade heat on
demand with a reproducible process. /Everybody in the field wants
this. Heck, almost everybody on Earth who knows anything about
energy wants this./
* When answering questions about this, Rossi seems to downplay the
truly earthshaking nature of this work, saying it's something that
works, doesn't matter how, and he wants to sell heaters. (I
_/think/_ I got that right -- from a post of Jed's but I don't
have it in front of me right now.) /I have the impression that he
never talks about how he's leapfrogged everybody and how fabulous
this result is ... is that right?
/
* I don't see any acknowledgment in Rossi's comments of the serious
difficulties which may arise in attempting to go straight to a
salable product. /This all sounds so much like what we've seen of
perpetual motion machine vendors ... they downplay the
earth-shattering theoretical aspects and talk about how they're
just going to sell devices./
* Nobody knows the details of the process except Rossi.
* Rossi is keeping the secret ingredient secret so nobody can steal
his work. Failure to reveal all has interfered with getting a
patent. It has also made it impossible for anyone to attempt a
replication. /If he says he's going to reveal it at the end of
the patent process, that means another two years before he tells
anyone what was in the box -- if I understood what I read on
Vortex. And until someone has enough information to attempt a
replication, there's no solid way to test his claims./
* Rossi, unlike the earlier workers, is apparently not a trained
physicist or electrochemist. In fact, from what I've read here,
it's not clear what his degree is in, or if he's got one. By all
means yell at me if I've got this wrong, but if I've got it right,
it's an important point -- outsiders can make breakthroughs, and
dishonest outsiders can make breakthroughs too, but darn, it's /rare/.
* Rossi has a past which includes possible con-artist work. If this
isn't a huge red flag I don't know the meaning of the word "red flag".
It seems to me there's just one piece missing from the puzzle: Is there
a financial incentive for this demo? In short, */are there investors
in the background?/* If there are, then there's a financial incentive
for Rossi to produce a convincing demo, and in that case I'd say /hold
onto your wallet/.
Now, Jed has said some interesting things about this:
* "They should not try to sell practical devices at this stage.
Sooner or later they will run into huge problems..."
If Rossi really has the Grail, then Jed's comment is presumably
correct, and this isn't the best approach. But if Rossi is faking
it, then a black-box demo is /exactly/ what he needs to do in
order to keep investment dollars coming in.
* "... I did not get the sense he is trying to scam someone, or hide
something ... "
"I have talked to many researchers and inventors who seemed much
less honest."
Of course. If Rossi's not on the up-and-up, then one thing's
sure: He's really good at fooling people. Good con artists may
/seem/ totally honest. Honest people are often not as careful to
/appear/ honest as dishonest ones!
* "I do not follow the work of Mills closely, but I am not aware
that he has demonstrated a heat-producing device as impressive as
this, or on such a large scale. Needless to say, no other cold
fusion researcher has come close."
Yes, indeed, Rossi hit a home run first crack out of the box.
It's as though Edison demonstrated a 1000 watt mercury vapor
floodlight as his first lightbulb. Is it too good to be true?
* "I cannot think of any way this result could be faked."
Right -- Rossi's good. But there's a black box in the middle.
As far as I know, nobody who watched the Statue of Liberty
disappear a few years back caught on to how it was done.
In summary, I really, really, really don't like "black box"
demonstrations in an area where everybody is desperate for a solution.
On 01/17/2011 09:55 AM, Jones Beene wrote:
>
> Here is the website of the company founded by Andrea Rossi and others
> a few years ago. This company funded and owns the technology in question.
>
>
>
> http://www.lti-global.com/index.php
>
>
>
> However, apparently there has been some kind of falling-out with
> Rossi, and as you can see there is no mention of any of this on the
> website. It seems he is being marginalized.
>
>
>
> The company has changed focus to so-called "clean-coal". Sad. They
> have no comment about Rossi, who was operating out of a different
> branch (New Hampshire). They have large DARPA grants, unrelated to the
> LENR cell, and do not want to compromise those.
>
>
>
> You may or may not agree, but it is clear to me that this drama in
> Bologna was hastily staged, not ready for prime-time, and will end up
> being a disaster for Rossi and LENR in general -- when all of the
> details emerge.
>
>
>
> First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC
> license, which is complicated, costly and takes years.
>
>
>
> As for Europe, where the need for inexpensive energy is greater, who
> knows? The best thing that could happen, IMHO, is that the Italian
> military, their Pentagon equivalent, will take over the program and
> work something out with LTI as to the IP.
>
>
>
> Jones
>
>
>
>
>
