The other day Brian Josephson said "By the way, I'm now doing an experimental investigation -- which will happen first, pigs flying, or Nature publishing something relating to the Rossi reactor?"
Today someone asked me when I expect the mass media will take note of Rossi. My guess: 6 months after the first unit is sold, Rossi will be in the pages of the New York Times but no one will notice because they are installing a digital subscription paywall. (The Huffington Post has retaliated with a paywall for "for employees of the New York Times:" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/a-word-about-digital-subs_b_843385.html ) So it will take a month after that for the rest of the mass media. This is the most fun event in cold fusion since March 1989. I'm thinking maybe to enhance the fun we should set up a betting pool. We could cover a number of likely developments. I would take Day 1 as the day the first Rossi unit is sold. That may be later than now hoped. Let's assume that Defkalion succeeds. All bets are off if it fails. Anyway, starting on Day 1, predict how many days or months it will be until the following events. My guess in square parenthesis: First mention in major mass media other than Washington Times (already happened). [3 months] Major coverage in mass media; i.e. front page news, everyone else copies. [6 months] First mention in a State of the Union Address. This bar may be low, thanks to Bush's promoting the exploration of Mars. [2 years plus however long it takes to get to January.] . . . We could add many more events, but they are so far in the future and unknowable that a guess is little better than a dart-throw: First attack ad by fake environmentalist front groups sponsored by fossil fuels. [1 year -- they are slow to notice danger] Large industrial corporation announces it is launching major R&D. [1 year. Also slow] Many competing corporations announce similar R&D. [1 year and two months later. Not slow after the competition makes the first move] Nature magazine mentions cold fusion. [1 year. Okay, okay, 6 months. They are not going to let the New York Times scoop them] Nature magazine takes credit for cold fusion; says that without its leadership cold fusion would never have happened. [That's easy: the next issue after they first deign to mention it.] Wikipedia skeptics shut up and go away. [Five minutes after Physical Review gives permission to stand down] First oil, coal or electric power company files for bankruptcy. [15 years] DoE is dissolved to save tax money. [Ha, ha, just kidding!! It'll never happen.] Robert Park admits he was wrong [Ditto!] - Jed
