On Oct 3, 2011, at 1:39 PM, Man on Bridges wrote:
Hi,
On 3-10-2011 23:00, Horace Heffner wrote:
I changed the referenced text to read: "For example, if the
probability of a catastrophe when drinking and driving once is
1/1000 = .001, then the probability of a catastrophe in 600 such
events is 1-.999^600 = 0.45, or about 45%. Of course the
probability of a catastrophic event is much larger if the drinking
is very heavy, perhaps 0.1. The probability of a catastrophe in
20 such events is 1-0.9^20 = 0.878, or about 88%. Each event is
independent, yet the combined effect of repeating events has a
dependent nature. This is sometimes called the Russian roulette
effect."
Which very clearly demonstrates that drinking and driving don't go
together.
Though many people believe that they are not negatively influenced
by any alcohol or drugs and are still able to drive a car, truck,
train, ship or airplane.
Therefore in most countries a limit of 0.5 promille is used for
alcohol levels while driving a car.
Kind regards,
MoB
This is excellent. In my case I would not dare to drink at all and
drive due to the compounding effect of being a doddering old man. 8^)
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
