Bruno Santos <[email protected]> wrote: It is very unlikely that those countries with large surplus in oil and/or > coal production would just abandon these energies sources in a short time. > It'll be both available and cheaper. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Canada, > Norway, Australia, China, Iran, Iraq and Russia come to mind. >
Why would they continue using energy that costs far more than cold fusion? This is like suggesting that a nation that happens to have a lot of silicon to make glass will go on using vacuum tube computers long after transistors are invented. Or that a nation that has lots of grass will go on using horses rather than automobiles. Eventually, cold fusion will be 100 times cheaper, and later 100,000 times cheaper than fossil fuel, hydro, or wind power. The US cost of fuel for energy works out to be roughly $2000 per person per annum. That includes energy expended by industry, the military and so on. With deuterium-based cold fusion I estimated this would be reduced to a few dollars per year. If hydrogen cold fusion works, this cost will be a fraction of one penny. That is the cost of the fuel. The cost of equipment will be considerably less than our present day equipment, for reasons I described in the book. > Power grids will still be around for a long time. > Let me quote the keynote speaker in the 1908 annual meeting of the National Association of Carriage Builders: "Eighty-five percent of the horse-drawn vehicle industry of the country is untouched by the automobile. In proof of the foregoing permit me to say that in 1906 - 7, and coincident with an enormous demand for automobiles, the demand for buggies reached the highest tide of its history. The man who predicts the downfall of the automobile is a fool; the man who denies its great necessity and general adoption for many uses is a bigger fool; and the man who predicts the general annihilation of the horse and his vehicle is the greatest fool of all." When a new technology is far cheaper and more convenient for everyone, the old technology vanishes within a generation. Power grids will be no exception. The power companies will have no customers and no revenues. - Jed
