2011/11/9 Jed Rothwell <[email protected]>: > A small businessman, with a private > corporation, who has no grasp of how to deal with a potentially gigantic > worldwide market worth ~$1 trillion a year. As someone here remarked, he is > treating this like some guy who has come up with an improved formula for > automobile window washing fluid, and he's manufacturing cases of the stuff > and stockpiling them in a warehouse, hoping to ratchet up to a few million > dollars in sales.
There would be 2 major drivers: 1) Added value i.e. earnings for e-cat producers. 2) Energy savings for customers. (for a market to exist both roles, buyer and seller, shall see an advantage in trading) Point 2) is certain as long as the e-cat keeps the promises. It gives to a business selling CF devices a powerful lever to attack the market, but to take advantage the business must be the only one. And most interesting such saving *lowers* the global GDP i.e. less money changing hands, the energy market, in monetary terms, will become smaller indeed, much smaller than today. About the other point. Suppose no patent will ever be granted. Once the secret would have been known or similar results can obtained with a know process 1) would be true only if producing equipment that exploits CF were very difficult to design and build. Requiring the highest degree of specialization and unparalleled engineering capabilities. Imagine that that is not the case: anyone can create a factory where millions of reactors are assembled. That would imply really low profitability on each sold piece. Those things last more years than a car so there is little gain in replacement. Why would any one buy Rossi's and not Mr Chen's? What is the conclusion? Rossi is not aggressive to the market because the device will reproduced easily and will be cheap to make. He is trying to build a slowly, but solid growing, business. It also means that he expects that his company would have a technological monopoly only for a few years and that he does care more about profitability than market share, i.e. same or slowly growing sales numbers in an expanding market with lots of competitors. Of course if patent were to be granted Rossi's strategy could be far more aggressive. mic
