Aussie Guy E-Cat <[email protected]> wrote: First point: Without mains electricity there is no sewage or water supply > system. With-in days most high rise building would not be fit to inhabit as > the toilets would no longer flush and there would be no running water.
Well of course. We all know that. What is your point? No one is suggesting the change over would occur in months or even years. This is a bit like saying in 1920: "Without railroads people in towns and cities will not have food to eat, and commuters everywhere will not be able to get to work." That was true in 1920, less true in 1930, and by 1950 it was not true at all. A 30-year transition away from power companies is reasonable. In some places they might last longer, or they might last indefinitely. People in New York City still commute by trains to Long Island and Connecticut. As Arthur Clarke said, once we invent a tool we never completely abandon it. Fifty years from now people in New York City may still use electricity from power mains. The mains are underground. It is unlikely people in suburban Atlanta will, because our power is unreliable, above ground, ugly, dangerous and expensive to maintain. Every time we get freezing rain it goes out, sometimes for hours or days. Home generators will be as reliable as today's gas fired water heaters, which in Atlanta are *much* more reliable than electricity. People will only install cold fusion powered equipment gradually, as their HVAC and plumbing equipment gets old and has to be replaced. No one would buy a home generator just to save on the cost of power. You would do it when you need to buy a new heater and airconditioner anyway. Domestic HVAC stuff lasts 15 or 20 years, occasionally 25 to 30. I just had an old airconditioner replaced today. The guy said he hasn't seen one like that in 10 years, but there are a lot of them around this part of Atlanta, which was built in the 1940s and 50s. The same rule applies to cars. Unless you commute 100 miles a day (as some people do) you are not going to trade in a 3-year-old car just to get one runs for free on hydrogen and nickel. However, when your car wears out and you go to the dealer to buy a new one, given a choice between one that costs $0.20 per mile to drive, and one that costs nothing per mile, only an idiot would buy the former. Once the base price of cold fusion cars falls to a level near gasoline models, dealers will not sell a single gasoline car, ever again. The base price is likely to fall a lot lower after that. Cold fusion cars should be substantially cheaper once the technology matures. - Jed
