Aussie Guy E-Cat <[email protected]> wrote: As one who works in this field, the transition will not be easy or nice. > Large amounts of pain will occur if the grid fails to deliver reliable > electricity. This is not buggy whips or telephone exchanges.
I think a better comparison in the U.S. would be to the railroad system, especially the passenger rail system. It was the biggest industry in 1900. It first contracted between 1920 and 1932 because of automobiles. The biggest problem this caused was the pension funds for retired workers. Congress passed a law funding them, in a one-time adjustment. Then, after WWII the industry contracted again. It would have been traumatic, leaving small communities without transportation if it had happened overnight. But it took 20 to 30 years. It was gradual, so people adjusted by building good roads, gas stations, and by lowering the cost of cars. (To put it another way, that is what caused it.) By the time the transition well underway, the only people it hurt were railroad workers and stockholders. I think a similar transition will occur with electric power companies. The transition from gasoline to cold fusion cars may be more abrupt. That will only hurt the oil companies. It will not have as much impact on factories or the infrastructure as the gradual collapse of power companies. That is why I predict it will take longer for power companies to go completely out of business -- because they are more tightly bound into the rest of our technology, and they are more necessary. To put is another way, if we were to gradually run out of gasoline over 5 years, we could transition to electric cars. It would be difficult but we could manage it. But if our electric power system were to magically disappear over 5 years, civilization would collapse. Cars wear out and have to be replaced sooner than most electrically powered equipment and gas fired HVAC equipment. That is another reason cars will be replaced sooner. - Jed
