Recent years showed that oil prices can't get much above $150 a barrel or it creates a downturn that drops the price, amidst layoffs and crashes.
What wasn't realized by experts, a few years back, is the degree of correlation that exists between markets today, The calls to invest in emerging markets to avoid the downturn in the developed nations turned out as a disaster. We're all stuck in this global economy together whether we like it or not. I found this out the hard way ($$). ________________________________ From: alain.coetm...@gmail.com [mailto:alain.coetm...@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Alain Sepeda Sent: Tuesday, December 27, 2011 12:07 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:If I Had Free Energy/Politics The oil producers won't be the first victims of LENR (assuming it works as said). Liquids fuel are very efficient per mass, easy to refill, and quite cheap (europe can affort it at 5x the price tax included, so the price limit is about 300$/barel) the first victim will be the inefficient, unpractical, unstorable energy like solar and wind. the second will be biofuel and alike, who are dangerous for ecosystem and humanity (starvation fuel) those energy will be killed instantly, because no investment will be made also the future nuclear energy will be killed, like French 3rd generation EPR, downsized nuclear reactors, 4th generation reactors for production. nuclear reactor will be kept alive for the transition, with existing reactor, then retrofitted when it is cost efficient... research will be made for incinerating reactors, if LENR reactors cannot do it (some pretend LENR can incinerate, with the produced neutrons), and also for cleaning and recycling plants... but basically nuclear industry will move to cleaning mode for 40-60 years. oil can stay long, but the price will be capped, because if too expensive, the research will be affordable to replace oil by LENR in cars and transportation... also many of it's use will be forgotten, like in fixed installation (power plant, UPS, home heating) , big vehicle (cargo, trains... trucks and bus maybe)... sure it will kill the easy money to governments and 7 sisters, and the price will be the cost of extraction. if oil start to get expensive to produce, LENR will replace it quickly... this mean that non-conventional oil and gas will die slowly. reserve will quicky be reduced, without pain, and we will see the peak oil, like we have seen the "peak horse" in the 20th century, and the "peak hunt" at neolithic. nickel will never be a limiting factor. only safety delirium can (and probably will temporarily) limit it's spread to an elite of big business. all big business leaders will fight to forbide home usage, and will probably, like with fluocompact lamps, use the greens to spread Fear Uncertainty and Doubt like they did on GMO, antennas&alike. about the impact on work, it will kill few business, start fewer new, make most better. the limiting factor will be work (not resources, unlike oil. like nuclear), but LENR seems to be an easy technology, unlike nuclear energy. IMHO the FUD will only work on rich societies, but will there be any rich society anymore... Europe ? US? maybe we won't be able to afford FUD. at least countries in south and asia will ignore occidental FUD and develop easy small-scale clone version. globally LENR will be good for workers, good for businesses (except the few losers, but there will be many winners). unlike green jobs, the LENR jobs will be cost efficient, and less numerous than today's energy (because less expensive) but it will increase the efficiency of all business and workers... so the question will be if the benefit will be spread to the mass (like in the glorious 30s), or (like today with globalization) concentrated to a small elite. I believe that the big business elite will try to capture the benefit, but it will leak to the workers and small businesses... for me it will behave like the big productivity gains of the 50s-60s... be good for the weak too... unlike today. 2011/12/27 Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com<mailto:jedrothw...@gmail.com>> Zell, Chris wrote: At this point, I think many of us are so angry and disgusted by the greed and legal invulnerability of the ruling class, that I would give it away, just to end their misrule. I do not see how this would end the misrule of the ruling class. Cold fusion has many potential benefits, but this does not seem to be among them. It would put an end to OPEC and the political power of some countries in the Middle East, and Venezuela, but I do not see how we can predict the affect on the ruling class elsewhere. It might strengthen them, since it might concentrate power in the hands of technically well-educated people. - Jed
