Here are some details about that rough estimate of $1 trillion damage over the long term.
The immediate aftermath of the entire tsunami disaster was cost roughly $250 billion, but it will cost a lot more in the future, especially if they rebuild the towns. I doubt they will rebuild many of them. Immediate insurance claims a few months after the accident were only $1.2 billion. Many of the would-be claimants were dead. Here is an estimate of costs from Greenpeace, admittedly a partisan organization, but facts and figures are all from Japanese government and industry sources: http://www.greenpeace.org/switzerland/Global/switzerland/de/publication/Nuclear/Lessons%20Learned%20from%20Fukushima%20final%20text.pdf They report that the Min. of Ed. and Science now estimates up to 13,000 km^2 (5,000 square miles) of affected land. TEPCO is committed to paying $59 billion damages over two years, but that's just the beginning. The amounts per capita do not begin to cover damages to lost property or relocation. Compensation -- if paid -- is expected to cost around $261 billion over the next 10 years. I expect it will go on much longer than 10 years but they will not pay. The direct cost of the clean up and decommissioning is estimated about at about $650 billion. The land area and affected by the reactor accident and the number of people was larger than the tsunami itself, I think, because it goes far inland, and the effects will last for decades. Japanese per capita wealth (not income) is ~$0.18 million. Farmers and people living in the countryside generally have a lot more wealth in property and facilities such as barns or warehouses than the urban population. Their income is low but they own lots of buildings, fertile fields, plastic greenhouses, livestock and so on. All of this property was destroyed or abandoned. All public facilities such as schools, government offices, fire departments, fire engines, hospitals, water processing plants and so on were abandoned. Even if they can go back in 40 years this stuff will be a pile of junk. This was a prosperous part of the country. Not all 90,000 of those people owned farms, canneries, chicken houses, or fishing boats but many of them did. I happen to know several Japanese farmers who do not have many acres, but they have canneries and fishing boats, tractors, trucks, buzz saws, milking machines, bakeries and so on. When you live in the countryside, you have to have physical tools or equipment to make a living. Not just an internet connection or a law degree. I suppose that conservatively, the private and public property of an average Japanese farmer is about 3 times higher than the average for the population as a whole. Say, $0.6 million. Multiply by 90,000 people gives an immediate loss of $54 billion. Add in the lost income from those farms and factories for the next 40 years and you are looking at a lot of money. I suppose farms earn about ~4 times the value of the land and equipment over 40 year, so that's $250 billion. It will never actually be paid by TEPCO or the government, but that is how much the victims and their survivors will lose. - Jed
