To consider all associated information on this subject from the Kennedy School see the following:
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/22145/new_study_by_harvard_kennedy_school_researcher_forecasts_sharp_increase_in_world_oil_production_capacity_and_risk_of_price_collapse.html On Wed, Jun 27, 2012 at 11:33 PM, Axil Axil <[email protected]> wrote: > Harvard Kennedy School researcher forecasts sharp increase in world oil > production capacity and risk of price collapse > > 27 June 2012 > > Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other > countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity could grow by > nearly 20% from the current 93 million barrels per day to 110.6 mbpd by > 2020, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy > School. Such an increase in capacity could prompt a plunge or even a > collapse in oil prices, he suggests. > > The findings by Leonardo Maugeri, a former senior executive vice president > of the oil company Eni, and now a fellow in the Geopolitics of Energy > Project in the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International > Affairs, are based on an original field-by-field analysis of the world’s > major oil formations and exploration projects. > > Contrary to some predictions that world oil production has peaked or will > soon do so, Maugeri’s projections forecast the biggest jump in any decade > since the 1980s. > > This increase represents less than 40% of the new oil production under > development globally: more than 60% of the new production will likely reach > the market after 2020, according to Maugeri. > Maugeri’s analysis finds that the gross additional production from current > exploration and development projects in the world could produce an > additional 49 million barrels per day by 2020, an increase equivalent to > more than half the world’s current 93 million bpd. After adjusting that > gross output increase for political and technical risk factors as well as > the offsetting depletion rates of current fields, the analysis projects the > net increase by 2020 to be about 17.5 bpd. > > The four countries that show the highest potential in terms of effective > production capacity growth are—in order—Iraq, the United States, Canada, > and Brazil. Much of this increased capacity comes from “unconventional > sources” such as US shale/tight oils, Canadian oil sands, Venezuela’s > extra-heavy oils, and Brazil’s pre-salt oils. Only four of the current > major oil producing countries (more than 1 mbpd of production capacity) > face a net reduction of their production capacity by 2020: Norway, the > United Kingdom, Mexico, and Iran. In Iran and Mexico, the loss of > production is primarily due to political factors. All other producers are > capable of increasing or preserving their production capacity, according to > Maugeri. > The most dramatic increases involve the exploitation of unconventional > oils in the United States, Maugeri says. The extraction technologies are > not new, but the combination of technologies used to exploit shale and > tight oils has evolved. The technology can also be used to reopen and > recover more oil from conventional, established oilfields. > > Taking into consideration limitation in transportation infrastructure and > refining capacity, and environmental barriers to development, the United > States could still increase oil production by 3.5 million barrels per day > and conceivably produce a total of 11.6 mbpd of crude oil and natural gas > liquids per year by 2020, making it the second largest oil producer in the > world, after Saudi Arabia, according to Maugeri. > > The Bakken and Three Forks fields in North Dakota and Montana alone could > become the equivalent of a Persian Gulf-producing country within the United > States. The Bakken formation’s output has grown from a few barrels in 2006 > to 530,000 a day in December 2011. > > The unprecedented unconventional oil development also comes with > environmental protection and regulation challenges. Hydraulic fracturing is > increasingly perceived as contributing to water and land contamination, > causing natural gas infiltration into fresh water aquifers, and even > triggering earthquakes. After more than one million hydraulic fracturing > operations in the United States since 1947 (hydraulic fracturing is not a > new technology) and comparatively few accidents, shale oil and gas recovery > activity can be managed with appropriate best practices and adequate > enforcement. Industry needs to develop technological solutions to minimize > water use, minimize and report chemical use, and carefully monitor > production sites. However, if such a collective effort by industry does not > materialize, government may respond with more onerous regulation in the > near future that could impact U.S. shale oil production. > > While the surge in production in the Western Hemisphere in coming years > will in effect leave the region self-sufficient in oil, the global nature > of the market makes that all but meaningless except in psychological terms, > Maugeri argues. He adds that the industry will need to make major > investments to keep oil production environmentally safe to avoid > threatening the new bonanza. > > A major increase in Iraq’s oil output as it regains stability, which will > add new production in the Persian Gulf region—potentially destabilizes > OPEC’s ability to manage output and prices, he notes. > The combination of new production in the Western Hemisphere and the still > growing production in other parts of the world could lead to a sharp drop > in oil prices, Maugeri suggests, which if steep enough could lead oil > companies to cut back on investment and ultimately slow down oil supplies. > But if oil prices remain above about $70 per barrel, sufficient investment > will occur to sustain continued growth in production, possibly leading to a > stable phenomenon of oil overproduction after 2015. > > Leonardo’s conclusions are not only startling, but his paper provides a > transparent explanation for how he reaches them—something lacking in many > studies. His findings have major implications for geopolitics, suggesting > important shifts in how countries interact and wield influence. > —Meghan L. O’Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of > International Affairs at the Kennedy School and director of the Geopolitics > of Energy Project > > > Cheers: Axil > > > > > > > > On Wed, Jun 27, 2012 at 9:35 PM, OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Jojo sez:**** >> >> ** ** >> >> > Seems to me that a prize for Alternative Energy from a Shiekh who got** >> ** >> >> > his riches from oil, appears a little suspicious.**** >> >> > **** >> >> > If you ask me, the Arabs just want to know who has the best technologies >> **** >> >> > for Alternative Energy so that they can spend some of their oil money to >> **** >> >> > paint a bulleye on your back.**** >> >> **** >> >> Since you are openly discussing an issue that strikes me as bordering on >> a controversial Off-Topic subject with political overtones... let me make >> my own contribution:**** >> >> ** ** >> >> According to a recent Kiplinger Letter the leaders of many oil producing >> Arab states have indeed become concerned about the economic harm >> alternative energy technologies could wreak on the economic health of the >> kingdoms they rule. It has become evident to many that these economies have >> transformed into welfare states. The ruling class coddles their population >> base by feeding them a steady stream of addictions in the form of goods and >> services which can easily be purchased on the global market because of the >> high price of oil they sell. Few are inclined to protest in large unruly >> groups when shopping malls stuffed with affordable clothing, large screen >> TVs, and x-Boxes. Few are inclined to protest when practically free health >> care and education is available to the masses. The economies of these >> countries have essentially become addicted to the price of oil remaining >> alarmingly high.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> When Cold Turkey comes, and such a reckoning most likely will, it will >> not be a pretty sight. Revolutions will occur in kingdoms that had based >> their economies on the price of oil remaining very high. One can expect the >> overthrow of the ruling class and the political parties they manage. It >> could be a treacherous time for many common ordinary citizens who are doing >> their best to eke out a decent middle-class living. In the ensuing economic >> collapse, there will be confusion, fear, and outrage. There will likely to >> be a string of manufactured scapegoats as well.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> In the ensuing chaos perhaps the populations of certain countries will >> vote in the equivalent of their own version of a brand new "governor" who >> promises to root out economic waste. They will promise to root out >> individuals and institutions they claim are taking unfair economic >> advantage of the suffering masses. They will sell a "conquer and divide" >> scenario - sort of like what happened in Wisconsin, when Scott Walker got >> elected and then re-elected during the failed recall effort. As long as an >> elected leader can sell the belief that he knows who the real enemy is and >> that he will "conquer and divide" them, a population base that feels both >> financially compromised and helpless is very prone to re-elect them. **** >> >> ** ** >> >> In the ensuing economic chaos of many collapsing oil producing economies >> I expect many in the ruling classes (along the institutions of power they >> manage) will do their best to manufacture a bunch of externalized >> scapegoats that hopefully deflect much of the outrage away from their own >> activities, which is essentially to stay in power. In pre-WW2 time the >> elected rulers of Germany managed to sell to the population base the need >> to hate Jews on the premise that a specific socio-economic class of people >> had somehow taken unfair economic advantage of everyone else - and it was >> now high-time to do something about them. On an obviously much smaller and >> less deadly scale, a similar scenario happened in Wisconsin when Scott >> Walker's financial backers helped the governor sell a belief to Wisconsin >> voters that state unions had for too long taken unfair economic advantage >> of everyone else in the state. They lined the unions up, just like what >> Russia did with the Czar and his family, and shot them all dead.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Whatever Cold Fusion eventually morphs into, and as the technology begins >> to decimate petroleum based economies right and left, not only will it be >> perceived with extreme dread, how can it not end up being perceived as "the >> enemy". It will be interesting to see what straw dogs the ruling classes of >> these countries will attempt to manufacture in an attempt to stay in power. >> **** >> >> ** ** >> >> Regards,**** >> >> Steven Vincent Johnson**** >> >> www.OrionWorks.com**** >> >> www.zazzle.com/orionworks**** >> >> ** ** >> >> ** ** >> > >
