Jed said:
I think that is nonsense. It will take 5 or 10 years to develop the vehicle because that is how long it took Toyota to develop the Prius, and there will be far more incentive -- and pressure -- to develop cold fusion. Once cold fusion begins to replace conventional cars, the changeover will be swift for various reasons I spelled out in the book. The half-life of a modern car is about 4 years. Once half of the fleet is gone, gas stations will go out of business and the owners will be forced to abandon the others. So it will take 4 to 6 years to replace all cars. 99% of all cars are replaced every 8 years now, so this will not call for much extra production or resources. 1. Andrea Rossi July 29th, 2012 at 1:21 PM<http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=679&cpage=1#comment-290431> Dear Neri B.: 1- For cars applications you have to go through series of certifications and tests by the carmakers. It will take no less than 20 years. 2- Yes, the Hot Cats will be validated 3- the electric power production is close, after the high temp. has been reached Warm Regards, A.R. Axil says: Amazing: You now claim to know more about the Rossi reactor than Rossi does. Putting a nuclear reactor into a car is more involved than putting in a hybrid battery assist add-on onto a gas based combustion engine. What evidence supports your conclusions about LENR based transportation, or is your opinion based on enthusiasm and wishful thinking? Your position might well be based on a defense of the conclusions as prophecy contained in your book against the hard earned hands on reality of the LENR business that Rossi has gained in his recent work experience. In my view, the certification of LENR's general use by a untrained customers and untrained service personnel is a major delay factor in the time it takes to field consumer based LENR products. How many nuclear capable engineers man the world’s auto service and inspection stations? These products must be judged by the certifiers of product safety to be crash, tamper and moron proof and legally air tight from a product liability standpoint. We have no idea at this juncture what this all takes in terms of effort and time to market. If you say you know. you only damage your credulity as a LENR applications expert. On Mon, Jul 30, 2012 at 11:54 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]>wrote: > Axil Axil <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> You missed the significance in this important sentence of my post >> regarding social engineering: >> >> *“All that is required is to delay the powering of transportation using >> LENR to provide an economic incentive to the farmer for liquid fuel >> production.”* >> > > Ah. I get it. You are suggesting that an obsolete (or obsolescent) > technology may improve in the face of potential competition from a new > technology. Yes, that does happen. Sailing ships improved in the 1840s, > partly in competition with steamships, and partly by borrowing technology > from them. > > Nowadays, conventional automobile engine efficiency is improving partly in > competition with hybrid technology. > > In this case, however, cold fusion is so much better than any liquid > chemical fuel that I doubt any improvement to liquid fuel will delay the > introduction of cold fusion. Various factors such as technical glitches may > slow down cold fusion, but I doubt this particular factor will. For one > thing, this form of liquid fuel would require a lot of expensive R&D to > perfect, and I doubt any venture capitalist would fund this knowing that > cold fusion will soon arrive. It would be like improving a vacuum tube > computer after transistors were invented. > > > >> Elimination of farm waste will save 5000 lives a year from food poisoning >> and a $trillion in medical bills. This advantage in itself is worth >> delaying introduction of LENR in transportation products. >> >> > There is not a single driver who would take this into account when making > a decision to purchase a car! There are no manufacturers who would be so > stupid as to delay the introduction of cold fusion powered cars because of > this. Any delay competing would be fatal. Selling a liquid fuel car in a > cold fusion world would be like trying to sell a wind-up record player to > customers who want iPods. > > > >> Anyway, According to Rossi, it will take 25 years to develosp LENR for >> transportation and 35 more years to replace all the old vehicles. >> > > I think that is nonsense. It will take 5 or 10 years to develop the > vehicle because that is how long it took Toyota to develop the Prius, and > there will be far more incentive -- and pressure -- to develop cold fusion. > Once cold fusion begins to replace conventional cars, the changeover will > be swift for various reasons I spelled out in the book. The half-life of a > modern car is about 4 years. Once half of the fleet is gone, gas stations > will go out of business and the owners will be forced to abandon the > others. So it will take 4 to 6 years to replace all cars. 99% of all cars > are replaced every 8 years now, so this will not call for much extra > production or resources. > > I get a feeling Rossi does not understand some of the fundamentals of > business and technology. > > - Jed > >
