Hi Craig, and fellow vortexians,
I'm looking at your graph on temperature anomalies and every data point
is above 0. Shouldn't some of you anomalies be negative. You have 16
years of positive anomalies but not a single negative. I think that proves
the point that temperatures are trending higher. If you have positive
anomalies for 16 years, that seems to be a trend.
Best Regards,
Chuck
On Wed, Feb 6, 2013 at 9:06 PM, Craig <cchayniepub...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 02/06/2013 04:20 PM, Craig wrote:
>
> On 02/06/2013 04:08 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
>
>
> It is a myth that temperatures have not increased in 16 years. The people
> making this claim started with the highest outlier point 16 years ago. See:
>
>
> I don't agree with that, but you can see it here:
>
> http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ihadcrut4110_-180-180E_-90-90N_n_1998:2013.png
>
>
> Actually, we can calculate this value.
>
> I started with Jan 1948 and took the trend line up until Jan 1998. Then I
> extended this trend line unto the end of the data set at Dec 2011. This
> gave us a projected temperature value of 0.282 above the entire mean of the
> HadSST3 series for Dec, 2011. (My dataset is using the global sea surface
> temperatures.) Then I took the standard deviation over the whole set of
> data from Jan 1948 - Dec 2011, and this was 0.177. So the final value
> should be within 0.282 +/- 0.177 off the mean, which would be 0.105 to
> .459, and it is within one standard deviation with a value of 0.363, which
> is still ABOVE the 50 year trend line.
>
> Here's a graph:
>
>
> https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4QESdNmbCJSbFFScjJZdUhWdU0/edit?usp=sharing
>
> So the temperature stall is still above the 50 year trend line, and can
> continue flat for quite some time before it falls below the first standard
> deviation.
>
> Craig
>
>
