Well, a million days is 2700 years, roughly, not 10,000. Not really sure what arithmetic you'd like shown, since there is no calculation here, beyond what's already been stated by others. The discussion is over what kind of odds constitute a coincidence versus not a coincidence, and if the odds are that it happens every 10k odd years, well, then its happened, lessee, estimated age of Earth is 4.54 billion years, then it can be estimated to have happened 454 THOUSAND times in Earth's history.
On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 9:02 AM, James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > Now you're throwing in a whole new level of sophistry to the argument, Mr. > Hollins: > > So what if 10,000 years is small "on a celestial time frame"? > > Civilization as we know it hasn't even been around that long, let alone a > human lifetime. > > Please, stop with the verbiage and show your arithmetic! > > > On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 9:57 AM, Alexander Hollins < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> TECHNICALLY, if the statement is the odds of such a thing happening on >> the same day, then the odds are one in 4.34 million. (the number of days >> you calculated). That said, one in a million odds, when talking about >> things on a celestial time frame, broken up by days, are pretty damn good >> odds. >> >> On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 1:36 AM, George Paulson < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> 271.8*16,000 comes out to 4,348,800 days. 4,348,800/365 comes out to >>> 11,915 years. >>> >>> So like I said we can expect an event like this roughly every 10,000 >>> years or so. >>> >>> That's a far cry from the one in one billion odds or the one in one >>> million odds after discounting by a factor of a thousand, isn't it? >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2013 01:04:34 -0600 >>> Subject: Re: [Vo]:Russian meteor coincidence odds >>> From: [email protected] >>> To: [email protected] >>> >>> >>> You quote me incorrectly. My actual words were "less than one in a >>> million". I stated so because mine was a "naive calculation" that came up >>> with 1/1332250000 to which I then applied a "discount by a factor of a >>> thousand" precisely to address such arguments as yours. >>> >>> To normalize your calculation properly you have to multiply 271.8*16,000. >>> >>> Now, can you do that arithmetic for us to complete your "critique"? >>> >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 27, 2013 at 11:13 PM, George Paulson < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> In an earlier message, James Bowery claimed that the odds of the >>> Russian meteor and asteroid DA14 passing Earth on the same day were "one in >>> a billion": >>> >>> http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg76844.html >>> >>> "The odds of this coincidence are literally far less than one in a >>> million. The naive calculation is based on two like celestial events that >>> independently occur once in a hundred years occurring on the same day: >>> >>> 1/(365*100)^2 >>> = 1/1332250000 >>> >>> Note: that is one in a billion. Discount by a factor of a thousand for >>> whatever your argument is and you are still one in a million. >>> >>> This is not a coincidence." >>> >>> This is incorrect. It is more like the birthday problem, where we're looking >>> for the number of "years" that pass until two wandering asteroids have the >>> same "birthday". A birthday here is when they fly by the Earth. >>> >>> >>> >>> We can expect the fly by of a DA14 type object every 40 years. If we >>> also assume that something like the Russian meteor passes by every 40 years, >>> this gives us a 16,000 day "year", and with a Taylor expansion you get a >>> >>> >>> >>> 99% probability of there being a coincident "birthday" after 271.8 "years", >>> or roughly 10,000 of our years. >>> >>> So we can expect an event like this once every 10,000 years. >>> >>> >>> >> >
