Erratum: surface -> parametric curve On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:44 PM, James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote:
> It would be interesting to look at the surface of the inflation-adjusted > price of triode vacuum tubes vs volume shipped through time from 1947. > > The same surface, substituting total market cap of vacuum tube companies > for triod vacuum tube price would be an interesting comparison. > > On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:34 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]>wrote: > >> James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >>> On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account >>> the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be >>> affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. >>> >> >> A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any >> company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if >> it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially >> useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil >> companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies >> would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil >> companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. >> >> That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. >> >> In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that >> matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies >> manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even >> though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would >> soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. >> >> - Jed >> >> >
