The price would bottom out at the O&M cost of refined products -- the stored capacity of refined products being a small fraction of the ~10 year deployment of substantial LENR technology. Capital can be written off.
On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:34 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > > >> On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account >> the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be >> affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. >> > > A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any > company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if > it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially > useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil > companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies > would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil > companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. > > That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. > > In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that > matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies > manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even > though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would > soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. > > - Jed > >
