http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/josling20131008
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes theorem (rule) is a useful model of "conditional probabilities". It is a way to judge improbable future events which derives from the more basic axioms of probability but it discounts the scientific objections in favor of actual results - but of course, assumes some degree of honesty. According to this video, Rossi may have almost doubled the prior probability of LENR in the eyes of statisticians. (it is still very low). Where is "Blaze," the probability guru, when we need him? I agree with one commenter that you can't really use linear thinking to predict a non-linear event like a paradigm change... but that does not keep betters from trying to predict almost anything.
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