This analysis is preposterous. He has to look at actual technical details. He can't just guess about the likelihood that "someone has discovered a new energy source." He has no idea what the likelihood of that event is. No one can have any such idea.
Melich and Johnson have done real Bayesian analyses. They are described by Cravens, here: http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/CravensDtheenablin.pdf For some reason I cannot find a paper by Melich and Johnson on this. - Jed
