I was thinking about this subject again, and looking up some numbers. I often look at automobiles because they are the most common machines on earth. The internal combustion engine is the cheapest primary power source measure in dollars per kilowatt of capacity. There is more capacity in automobile engines than all other power sources combined. Electric generators produce more net energy because the duty cycle is better. Most automobiles sit unused most hours of the day. If they were all turned on at once they would produce far more power than other sources.
Anyway, I think they cost about $10 to $20 per HP (0.75 kW). About $2000 for a new Ford F-Series 5.4 L 190 HP replacement motor, quantity 1. It is easy to do a back of the envelope estimate and determine that even when cold fusion automobile motors sell at a premium, the lifetime cost of owning something like a cold fusion powered automobile would be less than a gasoline powered automobile. It goes without saying that the very first cold fusion devices will cost a fortune, but the costs should soon fall. We can see this based on the cost of materials the likely difficulty of manufacturing and other factors. I conclude that within 10 or 20 years the sticker price for cold fusion powered vehicles will be less than the gasoline powered ones. See: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJthefuturem.pdf Let's look at some specific numbers for car ownership, from this web site: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/08/cost-car-ownership.asp "Government Estimates According to Consumer Expenditures in 2006, released in February of 2008 by the U.S. Department of Labor's U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average vehicle costs $8,003 per year to own and operate. The breakdown of the figure comes to $3,421 for purchasing the vehicle, $2,227 in gasoline and motor oil expenses, and $2,355 in other vehicle-related costs." * As I said, the purchase price will be high at first, but lower when the technology begins to mature. Say, 10% less: $3,079. * The fuel cost is zero. Much less oil lubricant is needed, just as less lubricant is needed with an electric car. Let's subtract the whole $2,227. * "Other vehicle related costs" are mainly for insurance, I believe. Most of the cost of insurance is to cover bodily damage or death to passengers. This can be reduced by increasing the safety of the vehicle, which you can do with heavier materials and so on. With cold fusion you can trade off energy efficiency for a safer car. The extra energy you use costs nothing. You can also reduce the cost of repairing a car in the event of an accident by using cheaper materials and a somewhat less aerodynamic shape. This also reduces insurance costs. So, just off the top of my head let us say we reduce these other vehicle related costs by 20%, to $1,884. This is conservative. * Other costs also include maintenance. I think a cold fusion powered car will resemble an electric car, which is inherently cleaner and easier to maintain. That's $4,963 compared to $8,003 per year, about 40% cheaper. That is an irresistible number. Once people realize they can cut the cost of owning an automobile by 40%, the sale of gasoline powered automobiles will plummet. Every model will soon be phased out. Trying to sell something the cost nearly twice as much with same functionality as the new product is a losing proposition. A cold fusion powered car would have much better functionality. It would not only be cheaper, it would be more convenient. You would not have to stop and fill the car with gas on a road trip. You do not have to worry about the vehicle exploding after an accident. Environmentalists can stop worrying about causing pollution and global warming. Most Americans will enjoy watching OPEC and Exxon go bankrupt. Those organizations do not inspire love or loyalty. - Jed
