http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/10/09/probability-is-now-45/
Based on http://www.nyteknik.se/asikter/debatt/article3854541.ece Exciting times! On Wed, Oct 8, 2014 at 8:58 AM, Blaze Spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: > http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/probability-now-20/ > > Disappointed to see the same names at the top of the paper. Shocked to > see not even Arxiv will accept it. I will increase the probability if > does make it onto Arxiv or if we see IH and Cherokee step up. > > On Sun, Jun 29, 2014 at 3:29 PM, Blaze Spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com > > wrote: > >> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/29/probability-is-now-27/ >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 24, 2014 at 10:06 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> >>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/probability-rossi-is-real-is-now-28/ >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 1:44 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Well I worded that strongly to drive home a point, we often hide our >>>> ignorance in the talk of probability. >>>> >>>> There are 4 domains in which we apply probability. >>>> >>>> 1: Things which are set and we are ignorant of, no actual element of >>>> chance exist, such as with Rossi. >>>> >>>> 2: Macro chance, things that we fail to predict but maybe could if we >>>> did sufficiently in-depth analysis, this could be likened to the spinning >>>> of a wheel of wheel of fortune >>>> >>>> 3: While a machine could be used to spin a wheel and get the desired >>>> selection to come up on a wheel, some things seem beyond our ability to >>>> predict. The experiment with falling BB's hitting pegs and being seemingly >>>> effected by the intent of the observer in university studies backs up that >>>> this is maybe beyond modeling within known physics/ Rolling a dice is >>>> similar, but we do know dice can be loaded showing that even on this level >>>> small physical changes can reduce the randomness. >>>> >>>> 4: Quantum physics where it is believed God does actually pay dice. >>>> But this is in ignorance of the state of the aether behind such >>>> interactions. >>>> It could be that these things are not random at all. >>>> >>>> But even IF you believe that probability really exist, that does not >>>> apply to Rossi. >>>> >>>> And if you were to hide ignorance in the language of probability >>>> despite the obvious lack of 'chance', there is the fact that if you were at >>>> 1% confidence and then saw one tiny single sign, you could have to go to >>>> 100%. >>>> >>>> Such as an event that can only be explained by Rossi being genuine. >>>> >>>> Granted this is difficult with magicians (illusionists) and con men, >>>> but there has very likely been such a sign that either moves him to 100% or >>>> damn near 0%. >>>> Not that there is anything that could prove him false so easily >>>> including proof he faked a test as there might be genuine motives to fake a >>>> test despite being genuinely in possession of the real thing, it really is >>>> harder/impossible to prove a negative. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jun 10, 2014 at 12:36 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> "1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or >>>>> they don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>>>> There is no such thing as probability in reality." >>>>> >>>>> I see.. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 5:12 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked >>>>>> out that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >>>>>> >>>>>> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts >>>>>> remain that make it worthless. >>>>>> >>>>>> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or >>>>>> they don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>>>>> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >>>>>> >>>>>> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >>>>>> Answer 1: 40% >>>>>> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real >>>>>> possibility of it going either way. >>>>>> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real >>>>>> risk that you must take seriously. >>>>>> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an >>>>>> extraordinary possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might >>>>>> not >>>>>> pan out. >>>>>> >>>>>> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is >>>>>> huge! >>>>>> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very >>>>>> well pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >>>>>> something potentially significant good or bad. >>>>>> >>>>>> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot >>>>>> worthy of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low >>>>>> level 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >>>>>> >>>>>> John >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>>>>>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>>>>>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock >>>>>>> price for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>>>>>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather >>>>>>> than the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>>>>>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly >>>>>>> the way Rossi used to post >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to >>>>>>> realize he's engaging in a classic >>>>>>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>>>>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com >>>>>>>> > wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>>>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because >>>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the >>>>>>>>>> world competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat >>>>>>>>>> which is >>>>>>>>>> just enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting >>>>>>>>>> it >>>>>>>>>> causes the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a >>>>>>>>>>> TIP report that shows something interesting, but nowhere >>>>>>>>>>> guaranteeing the >>>>>>>>>>> power densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent >>>>>>>>>>> behavior going >>>>>>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. >>>>>>>>>>> And possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive >>>>>>>>>>> new >>>>>>>>>>> source of chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket >>>>>>>>>>> Fuel in >>>>>>>>>>> the best case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with >>>>>>>>>>> optimal >>>>>>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to >>>>>>>>>>> its promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock >>>>>>>>>>>> offering. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but >>>>>>>>>>>> why didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? >>>>>>>>>>>> Why is >>>>>>>>>>>> Rossi doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist >>>>>>>>>>>> made in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. >>>>>>>>>>>> It is not >>>>>>>>>>>> an easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of >>>>>>>>>>>> Nuclear >>>>>>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me >>>>>>>>>>>> for the >>>>>>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps >>>>>>>>>>>> Magnus just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be >>>>>>>>>>>> to contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly >>>>>>>>>>>> can. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be >>>>>>>>>>>> coming over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% >>>>>>>>>>>> on the >>>>>>>>>>>> basis of this report. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP >>>>>>>>>>>> which is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result >>>>>>>>>>>> of >>>>>>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of >>>>>>>>>>>> 10% or so) >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report >>>>>>>>>>>> will reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a >>>>>>>>>>>> drop in 25%. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of >>>>>>>>>>>>> the Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say >>>>>>>>>>>>> it, but >>>>>>>>>>>>> It almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Nanor but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIT videos. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Yale Law School* and a BA from the University of North >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tom Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cherokee PR release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> but about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> latest news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> interesting inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Corporation MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> point. Could be updating this probability more >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
