(From about six years ago...)
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Barry Shein)
> Newsgroups: comp.unix.wizards
> Date: 23 Nov 92 01:24:06 GMT
> Subject: Re: The Problem with UNIX
>
> Some thoughts...(the "you" in here is the audience unspecified who is
> crying out for all this user-friendliness with a tone similar to what
> is heard from those folks who beg charity for starving babies in
> Somalia):
>
> 1. Although mentioned before, I will mention this again: People are
> confusing "Unix" with various user interfaces (i.e. shells.)
>
> The shell has been re-writtened so many times (including fully point
> and click mac-like things of which several exist from NeXT to Looking
> Glass to IBM's AIX Desktop whatever-it's-called) that the point is not
> even debateable.
>
> If there is such a huge market out there for these user-friendly
> interfaces how come no one but you has noticed?
>
> Is it that software houses don't like money?
>
> Assuming these user interface programs do exist and you haven't heard
> about them (i.e. they're not too commercially successful) what is
> that trying to tell you?
>
> Or is it possible (heresy alert)...just POSSIBLE...that you are (dare
> I say it)...wrong?
>
> 2. Here is what I remember of my Unix career:
>
> Year (approx) # of Unix systems Comment
> in the world (approx)
>
> 1976 200 Unix is too user unfriendly,
> it will never catch on.
>
> 1980 2000 Unix is too user unfriendly,
> it will never catch on.
>
> 1985 200,000 Unix is too user unfriendly,
> it will never catch on.
>
> 1992 4 million + Unix is too user unfriendly,
> it will never catch on.
>
>
> (I'm sure people will quibble the numbers, I'm also sure that my point
> will remain the same when the dust settles.)
>
> Ok, well the "my thingie is bigger than your thingie" crowd will point
> out that DOS has (some ridiculous number like 20-40M) systems out
> there. But how can you separate out merely cheap (and worth every
> penny) from better? What has been the effect of the minimum hardware
> to even run Unix costing $10K-$100K until relatively recently?
> Similarly, with almost exactly the same parameters (hardware prices
> dropping etc), how come OS's like VMS have fared so horribly?
>
> There are certainly more bicycles than automobiles in the world, does
> that make bicycles superior to autos? Or just better than nothing
> (e.g. when nothing means typing with a typewriter and a bottle of
> correction fluid) at a very low price point?
>
> (I consider the analogy apt, DOS is an operating system about as much
> as a bicycle is an automobile, that they both roll people around on
> wheels is not quite enough to make the point.)
>
> Anyhow, since Unix has had most of its growth in parallel with DOS
> it's a bit hard to make that point, I believe as a yearly percentage
> Unix is now growing faster than DOS, and that difference is expected
> to increase in the near future.
>
> So even those who point towards "instantly off the top of their heads
> fabricated" market statistics turn out to be on rather shaky ground.
>
> 3. Those who believe they have great intuitions about user interfaces
> and user friendliness and what that stupidest of all creatures, namely
> the secretary (you know who that is, the person who is always
> explaining to you how to use your phone switch, the postal meter, fill
> out requisition forms correctly, etc) can or cannot possibly learn,
> consider for one moment something no doubt sitting on your desk right
> this moment: The Telephone.
>
> Yikes! The TELEPHONE?!?!?!
>
> Does he mean that 12 or 20 or 100 button thing that requires you to
> key in anywhere from 7 to 10 to 20 or more DIGITS to find your friends
> and acquaintances and other info? (and don't forget to dial 9 for
> outside calls, 011-country-code for int'l calls, 9-1-area-code for
> outside long-distance, company tie-lines are accessed via ..., the 24
> digit pattern for making a charge card call is described on the back
> of your calling card, speed dialing is *NNNN where NNNN is the 4-digit
> code you wish to call, to add a party to a conference call dial the
> first party, put him or her on hold, dial ##+, wait for a dial-tone,
> then first-line#, +, second-line# num, release hold, to enter memory
> codes for fast dialing the switch marked "Memory" on the back of your
> phone must be set to "ON", then hold down the key marked FUNCTION and
> enter the key number you wish your number to be saved into, for two
> digit memory keys us FUNCTION first-digit # second-digit, when you are
> done type FUNCTION * and your number will be saved to NVRAM, 976 and
> 1-900 calls cost big bucks usually, 1-800 is free, etc etc etc etc etc
> etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc ETC ETC ETC ETC
> ETC....(anyone want to complete the list of little rules about using
> their phones they and their 6 year old children have committed to
> memory???))
>
> NAH...the telephone will never catch on, no one can possibly
> understand that kind of stuff...STRINGS OF DIGITS as an addressing
> scheme? Preposterous, unusable, unworkable, only for some kind of
> nerds...
>
> 4. SUMMARY - We haven't barely a clue as to what is user-friendly and
> what is not. All we sort of know is that people who are motivated to
> use a particular technology seem to have an uncanny ability to learn
> it that a priori judgements seem to be confounded by.
>
> 5. Post Script - After 16 years I'm getting awfully tired of this
> tired and nearly brainless point being made over and over and over and
> over and over again.
>
> All I've learned from all this is that most of the people I've known
> over the years who believed Unix was too user unfriendly and can never
> get anywhere have all missed the boat, most have become rather
> pathetic technological dinosaurs (or have finally given in.)
(End of Barry's comments)
[ I'd just add this:
Year (approx) # of Unix systems Comment
in the world (approx)
1998 20 million + Unix is too user unfriendly,
(incl. Linux) it will never catch on.
---Rsk ]
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