AP: Obama on track for Electoral College win
Analysis shows McCain seemingly won't have enough states to prevail
AP
An Associated Press analysis shows Barack Obama has 23 states and the District
of Columbia in his column or leaning his way, offering 286 votes. He needs only
270 to win the presidency.
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Video
McCain, Obama tussle for battlegrounds
Nov. 2: NBC political director Chuck Todd joins NBC’s Tom Brokaw on “Meet the
Press” to discuss the battleground landscape and results of the latest polls.
Meet the Press
Analysis
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer
updated 12:02 p.m. CT, Sun., Nov. 2, 2008
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WASHINGTON - Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270
electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with states to spare —
according to an Associated Press analysis that shows he is now moving beyond
typical Democratic territory to challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still
seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which
is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending patterns and interviews with
Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but
it's a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him
all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286 votes, in his
column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 21 states with 163
votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North
Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for grabs. President Bush won all six in
2004, and they are where the race is primarily being contested in the
homestretch.
Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't believe for
a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We have to work like our
future depends on it in this last week, because it does."
The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is inevitable
here. We never give up. And we never quit."
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Latest polling
Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to be
predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's been volatile
all year.
It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and private
polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly one fourth of voters
in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said they still could change their
minds. It's also still unclear how racial feelings will affect the results in
voting that could give the country its first black president.
Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but hadn't
laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.
Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the public's call
for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened his grip in the contest by
using his significant financial advantage to lock up most states that Democrat
John Kerry won four years ago, even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP
turf that McCain cannot afford to lose.
Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is scrambling to
defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign in the final days.
In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in typically
Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and McCain are even in two
other usually GOP states: Florida and North Carolina. Obama also is comfortably
ahead in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is
winning among early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the
country's sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in
these states.
McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-for-error
strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows the race getting
closer. They hope the gains trickle down to competitive Bush-won states in the
coming days and help the Arizona senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won
Pennsylvania. McCain is keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend
liberal; his strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.
"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states with our
numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's lead pollster in a
strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be
too close to call by next Tuesday."
Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they say they
aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win but a sweeping
victory that would reshapes the political landscape.
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"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to have many
routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election Day, David Plouffe,
Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this week. "We think we've been able
to create that dynamic and have a lot of competitive states in play."
Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational prowess, a remnant
of the long Democratic primary that was fought out in every corner of the
nation, to compete in states the party has ignored in previous elections
because of their histories of voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both
money and manpower.
As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has shrunk, and
the election's final week is being played out largely in states that Bush won
and that are toss-ups in a political climate that greatly favors Democrats.
They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North Carolina, as
well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada. Also on the list are
the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which were crucial in deciding the last
two presidential elections. McCain could sweep all six and still lose the White
House.
Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the bag or
leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire —
four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies aggressively fought for
before pulling back this month when they became out of reach. McCain still
hopes to win one of Maine's electoral votes, which are allotted by
congressional district.
Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't voted for a
Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's sights. Public polls
show Obama leading by double-digits, though McCain aides say it's much closer.
McCain hopes that working-class white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama
will vote Republican. Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes,
could be what allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart
Obama in Bush-held states.
Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of those
offering a combined 34 votes.
He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long considered
toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more toward Obama. McCain
is still advertising heavily in the four and has visited all in recent days.
His advisers say their polling shows the race tighter than it seems.
West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after Obama started
advertising in them; the Republican National Committee was forced to go on the
air this week to defend them.
Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia and North
Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining an edge. But, as the
race closes, there are indications Obama could win them, too. Obama also could
pick up a single vote in Nebraska, which awards votes based on congressional
districts.
There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of Arizona — which
would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is narrowing. Public polls
show McCain with a single-digit lead, even though Obama hasn't targeted the
state.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not
be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27488202
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