Saturday, November 1, 2008

NC Senate 

It is pretty clear to me based on our polling this weekend that Kay Hagan will 
be headed to the US Senate unless something very bizarre happens in the next 72 
hours. While numbers in the races for President and Governor are basically 
unchanged from last week there has been clear movement away from Elizabeth 
Dole, a sign that her 'Godless Americans' ad is blowing up in her face. 

Dole has run one of the worst campaigns imaginable. Here are several examples:

-Doing a huge ad buy in June to bolster her numbers because her people got 
freaked out when polls right after the Democratic primary showed a tight race 
between her and Hagan. Of course the polls were going to tighten after Hagan 
had been on the air unchecked for a month...but the polls in May don't matter a 
lick. The best campaigns are ones that can keep their eye on the ball and make 
decisions based on the long haul instead of for instant gratification. How's 
that 14 point lead in June looking for you now Liddy? 

-That money would have been much better spent in say, the month of August, when 
the DSCC was able to define Dole in the eyes of the electorate without any real 
push back from her campaign. The fact is the ads she ran in June were actually 
pretty darn good. They got out in front of the 'she's not from around here' 
argument by showing her across North Carolina, with real North Carolinians 
speaking positively about her work. She came across relatively likable in them. 

But instead of rolling those out again immediately after she started getting 
attacked, the reaction seemed to be sitting around for a few weeks and then 
attacking back. But the reality is that attacking Kay Hagan was never going to 
be a particularly effective strategy for Dole because this race turned into a 
direct referendum on her. She needed to make people like her again, and she 
wasn't going to do it by attacking her opponent that no one knew much about.

The old men on the porch in the DSCC's ads asked a question that I think a lot 
of North Carolinians were wondering about: "what happened to the Liddy Dole I 
knew?" Dole never answered that question in this campaign.

I'll have more on the impact of the Godless Americans ad and how it shows her 
campaign team is out of touch with the changing face of North Carolina later. 
 
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/nc-senate.html
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