On 14/07/2009, Sage Ross <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't think the bell-shaped articles/day curve of the logistic model > is a good description of the trends. Since article creation peaked in > 2007, the falloff in article creation has been much slower than than > ramp-up. Rather than falling back to close to zero articles/day over > the next 5 years or so (as the logistic model predicts), it looks like > we're heading to an asymptote of (I'm eyeballing it here) around 1000 > articles/day. I expect 4 million articles a lot sooner than > *eventually*. ;)
I don't see any evidence for an asymptote at all yet. We're only about ~1300 per day now, and the trend is clearly downwards, on a *log* graph of *percentage* growth against time it's a straightish line downwards, and the size of the wiki seems to be plateauing; percentage growth is a quarter what it was two years ago, and the wiki is only 1/3 bigger. IMO we're probably going to be under a 1000 per day by Christmas. If we do manage 4 million I don't think it will be in the next 4 years. > -Sage -- -Ian Woollard "All the world's a stage... but you'll grow out of it eventually." _______________________________________________ WikiEN-l mailing list [email protected] To unsubscribe from this mailing list, visit: https://lists.wikimedia.org/mailman/listinfo/wikien-l
