[Winona Online Democracy]
Mr. Woodford,
In anticipation of your next question, I thought I would offer the following:
Complex systems consist of a myriad of feedback mechanisms. Some of these
mechanism provide "positive" feedback. Others provide "negative" feedback.
Positive feedback mechanisms reinforce the change that is taking place.
Negative feedback mechanisms diminish that change. A simple example of positive
feedback is the screaming tone from a PA system when the microphone picks up a
bit of the output of a connected loud speaker and amplifies one of the
frequencies (that which is most "in sync" based upon the seperation between the
microphone and the loud speaker) to create the tone. PA system designers,
recognizing this, have introduced negative feedback circuits into their
equipment. SUCH SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, NEVER REACH TRUE EQUILIBRIUM. You can always
observe a very slight ring in PA system that is self-adjusting for positive
feedback.
The example I offered yesterday consisted of several factors that provided
positive feedback to the global climate change taking place - namely warming.
At the same time, negative feedback components are at work. The most important
negative feedback component in global climate control that scientists have
identified are the oceans - specifically the ocean currents driven by thermal
and coreolis affects.
As global temperature increases the ice in the polar regions begins to melt.
This major - unusual - influx of fresh water into the ocean system reduces the
salinity of the seas. Salt in the oceans increases their ability to transport
heat around the world. Reducing salt reduces the effectioveness of this heat
transport mechanism. Less heat is transported away from the equatorial parts of
the Earth and the regions near the poles begin to cool. An ice age follows.
Polar ice builds up. The ocean salinity increases, etc. etc.,
What was unexpected was that polar ice core samples indicate that the SWITCH
(what scientists call a cusp, or a phase transition) takes only about 10 years.
In other words, we could go from a period of global warming that lasted
hundreds or thousands of years to a period of global cooling (ice age) that
lasted hundreds or thousands of years within 10 years! The same is true of the
"switch" to a warming cycle, which we have just experienced.
We KNOW that CO2 plays a big part in this complex cycle. We KNOW that recent
human activity has made a BIG impact on the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. We
KNOW that we are in a warming cycle which corelates closely with the current
spiralling CO2 levels.
So...to answer the question I thought you would next ask:
My example global warming event ends with a cooling event. Little warming
events end with little cooling events. Big warming events end with ice ages.
The evidence points to a mighty big warming event...and we might be able to do
something about it. We can't stop it at this point, but the evidence suggests
that we can moderate it. We simply must do so.
-Leslie Hittner
----- Original Message -----
From: c.e. woodford
To: [email protected]
Sent: Friday, March 02, 2007 4:37 PM
Subject: [Winona] Where is the CO2 coming from?
[Winona Online Democracy]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mrs/Ms Hitner,
I dont know where it is coming from...Can you tell me why there were spikes
in the Bronze age as well? Certainly it was coming from somehere then as well
correct? I need you to clarify that for me so I can better make an accurate
decision.
regards
c.e. woodford
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